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中国人口·资源与环境 >

2026 , Vol. 36 >Issue 3: 170 - 183

DOI: https://doi.org/10.12062/cpre.20250909

“三农”与可持续发展

植物性饮食需求下中国耕地食物供需格局与种植结构优化

  • 殷如梦 ,
  • 李欣 ,
  • 肖逸 ,
  • 王林艳 ,
  • 邹伟
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  • 1.南京农业大学公共管理学院,江苏 南京 210095;
    2.扬州大学农学院,江苏 扬州 225009
殷如梦,博士生,主要研究方向为耕地可持续利用。E-mail：Yinrumeng1224@163.com。
邹伟,博士,教授,博导,主要研究方向为土地资源与经济。E-mail：njauzw@126.com。

收稿日期: 2025-04-11

  修回日期: 2025-11-18

  网络出版日期: 2026-06-05

基金资助

国家自然科学基金项目“生猪养殖环境规制对乡村土地利用变化影响研究”（批准号：420712221）,“膳食结构转型视角下耕地弹性 空间识别与管护机制研究”（批准号：42401307）; 中国博士后科学基金项目“长三角耕地集约利用的可持续性：特征、机制与调控”（批准号： 2023M741732）; 教育部人文社会科学基金项目“东部经济发达地区耕地非粮化格局演化效应及其治理路径研究”（批准号：22YJCZH090）

收起

Optimizing China's cultivated land food supply-demand structures and cropping pat-terns under plant-based dietary demand

  • YIN Rumeng ,
  • LI Xin ,
  • XIAO Yi ,
  • WANG Linyan ,
  • ZOU Wei
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  • 1. College of Public Administration, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing Jiangsu 210095, China;
    2. College of Agriculture, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou Jiangsu 225009, China

Received date: 2025-04-11

  Revised date: 2025-11-18

  Online published: 2026-06-05

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摘要

现有耕地保护政策长期偏向供给端,忽视居民膳食需求变化,导致政策效果偏差。该研究以“有限性”膳食需求为逻辑起点,关注居民饮食易饱和、过量无益,典型的“有限性”膳食需求——植物性饮食,以省份为单元,整合统计与人口资料,运用GIS空间分析与统计工具,构建不同作物的食物供给与居民食物营养需求的供需比指标并分解作物贡献,分析2000—2022年热量、蛋白质、脂肪的供需格局与时空演化,探讨食物供需平衡状态,进一步探索不同地区食物供给和需求结构调整的路径。研究结果表明：①2000—2022年,植物性饮食下中国耕地食物供给能力总体上升,热量与蛋白质基本满足需求,但脂肪供能存在持续性赤字。②研究期间,植物性饮食的食物供需比区域差异明显,热量、蛋白质及脂肪供需比呈“东西两端凹陷中部隆起,北高南低”空间分异特征,且三者时序变化稳定,形态、位置、格局未发生明显变化。③2000—2022年,中国耕地热量、蛋白质、脂肪供给总量显著增长,其中热量/蛋白质主要由玉米、蔬菜、小麦贡献,脂肪主要由油菜籽、蔬菜、大豆提供,结构性短板仍在。④在植物性膳食模式下,居民对耕地需求量总体下降,但各作物在不同地区的盈余与赤字并存,格局分化明显。建议由“重供给”转向“按需定产+需求侧管理”,合理引导植物性膳食,增加食用粗杂粮（如谷物、薯类）、豆制品、菜籽油、新鲜蔬菜、水果等食物;供给侧须因地因时优化种植结构、合理配置耕地资源;治理上完善跨区域调剂与产销区横向补偿机制,形成供需协同的耕地保护与食物安全新机制。

关键词： 食物安全; 植物性饮食; 耕地食物供给; 供需平衡

本文引用格式

殷如梦 , 李欣 , 肖逸 , 王林艳 , 邹伟 . 植物性饮食需求下中国耕地食物供需格局与种植结构优化[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2026 , 36(3) : 170 -183 . DOI: 10.12062/cpre.20250909

Abstract

Cultivated land protection policies in China have long been biased toward the supply side, with insufficient attention to changes in residents' dietary demand, leading to deviations in policy effectiveness. Anchored in the concept of “limited” dietary de-mand, where human diets are readily saturated and excessive intake yields no additional benefit, this study took plant-based dietary de-mand as a typical case. Using provinces as the unit of analysis, this study integrated statistical and demographic data, applied GIS-based spatial analysis and statistical tools, and constructed supply-demand ratio indicators for different crops by decomposing their con-tributions. This approach depicted the supply-demand patterns and spatiotemporal evolution of calories, protein, and fat between 2000 and 2022, assessed the balance between food supply and demand, and explored pathways for adjusting food supply-demand structures across regions. The results showed that: ① From 2000 to 2022, China's cultivated land food supply capacity under plant-based dietary demand increased overall, with calorie and protein needs being largely met, but there was a persistent deficit in fat-derived energy sup-ply. ② During the study period, regional disparities in supply-demand ratios under plant-based dietary demand were evident, with calo-ries, protein, and fat exhibiting a spatial pattern characterized by “depressions at the eastern and western ends with central uplift and a north-south gradient with higher values in the north,” and their temporal trajectories remained stable with no marked shifts in spatial form, location, or overall configuration. ③ Between 2000 and 2022, the total supply of calories, protein, and fat from Chinese cultivated land increased significantly. Calories and protein were mainly contributed by maize, vegetables, and wheat, while fat was primarily sup-plied by rapeseed, vegetables, and soybeans, reflecting persistent structural shortcomings. ④ Under a plant-based dietary pattern, the overall demand for cultivated land by residents declined, but different crops exhibited both surpluses and deficits in various regions, showing significant pattern differentiation. This study recommends shifting from “emphasizing supply” to “production according to de-mand and demand-side management,” reasonably guiding plant-based diets, and increasing the consumption of coarse grains (such as cereals and tubers), soy products, rapeseed oil, fresh vegetables, and fruits, among other foods. On the supply side, it is necessary to op-timize planting structure and reasonably allocate cultivated land resources according to local conditions and timing. In terms of gover-nance, improving cross-regional adjustments and horizontal compensation between production and marketing areas would help form a new mechanism for coordinated cultivated land protection and food security.

Key words： food security; plant-based diet; cultivated land food supply; balance between supply and demand

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