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天津师范大学学报（自然科学版） >

2026 , Vol. 46 >Issue 2: 45 - 53

DOI: https://doi.org/10.19638/j.issn1671-1114.20260206

地理与环境科学

北大港水库中铀和钍的来源解析和健康风险评估

  • 武倩 ,
  • 朱兆洲
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  • 1.天津师范大学 天津市水资源与水环境重点实验室,天津 300387;
    2.天津师范大学 地理学部,天津 300387
武 倩（2000-）,女,硕士研究生。
朱兆洲（1978—）,男,副研究员,主要从事微量元素地球化学方面的研究.E-mail:zhuzhaozhou@tjnu.edu.cn.

收稿日期: 2024-06-20

  网络出版日期: 2026-06-03

基金资助

国家自然科学基金资助项目（41673026）

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Source apportionment and health risk assessment of U and Th in Beidagang Reservoir

  • WU Qian ,
  • ZHU Zhaozhou
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  • 1. Tianjin Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Environment,Tianjin Normal University,Tianjin 300387,China;
    2. Geography Department,Tianjin Normal University,Tianjin 300387,China

Received date: 2024-06-20

  Online published: 2026-06-03

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摘要

为了了解北大港水库中放射性核素铀（U）和钍（Th）的污染特征、健康风险及污染来源,采用固相萃取-电感耦合等离子体质谱法（ICP-MS）测定北大港水库水体中U和Th的浓度,结合蒙特卡洛模拟,采用内梅罗综合污染指数法和健康风险模型评估水体中U和Th的污染程度及健康风险,最后利用正定矩阵因子分解模型（PMF）分析污染来源。结果表明:①北大港水库水体中U和Th的活度浓度分别为（50.5 ± 16.5）mBq/L和（0.074 ± 0.034）mBq/L,受降水补给减少和蒸散发作用的影响,枯水期浓度高于丰水期的值。②丰水期研究区水体处于清洁和较清洁水平的概率分别为3.16%和96.80%,产生轻度污染的概率为0.04%;枯水期水体处于清洁和较清洁水平的概率分别为0%和83.50%,产生轻度和中度污染的概率分别为16.14%和0.36%。③研究区U和Th的总致癌风险指数为13.93 × 10-6,存在潜在致癌风险;化学毒性风险指数商较小,化学毒性可忽略。④污染源分析结果表明,北大港水库中放射性核素U的来源主要有土壤源、农业源、海洋源和工业源,贡献率分别为24.6%、50.8%、20.9%和3.7%;Th的来源主要有土壤源、海洋源和工业源,贡献率分别为57.6%、32.6%和9.8%。

关键词： 北大港水库; 铀（U）; 钍（Th）; 污染特征; 健康风险; 正定矩阵因子分解模型（PMF）; 蒙特卡洛模拟

本文引用格式

武倩 , 朱兆洲 . 北大港水库中铀和钍的来源解析和健康风险评估[J]. 天津师范大学学报（自然科学版）, 2026 , 46(2) : 45 -53 . DOI: 10.19638/j.issn1671-1114.20260206

Abstract

To investigate the pollution characteristics, health risks, and sources of radioactive nuclides uranium (U) and thorium (Th) in Beidagang Reservoir, their concentrations in the water were determined using solid-phase extraction coupled with inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). The pollution level and health risks posed by U and Th were assessed via the Nemerow composite pollution index method and health risk models, incorporating Monte-Carlo simulations. Finally, pollution source apportionment was conducted using the positive matrix factorization (PMF) model. The results showed that: ① The activity concentrations of U and Th in the water of Beidagang Reservoir were (50.5 ± 16.5) mBq/L and (0.074 ± 0.034) mBq/L, respectively. Concentrations during the dry season were higher than those in the wet season, primarily due to reduced precipitation recharge and enhanced evaporation. ② During the wet season, the probabilities of the water being at clean and relatively clean levels were 3.16% and 96.80%, respectively, with a 0.04% probability of slight pollution. In the dry season, the probability of the water being at clean and relatively clean levels were 0% and 83.50%, while the probabilities of slight and moderate pollution were 16.14% and 0.36%, respectively. ③ The total carcinogenic risk index of U and Th was 13.93 × 10-6, indicating a potential carcinogenic risk. The chemical toxicity hazard quotient was minimal, suggesting that chemical toxicity could be neglected. ④ The pollution source analysis results showed that the main sources of radioactive nuclide U in Beidagang Reservoir were soil, agriculture, marine, and industrial, with contribution rates of 24.6%, 50.8%, 20.9%, and 3.7%, respectively. The main sources of Th were soil, marine, and industrial, with contribution rates of 57.6%, 32.6%, and 9.8%, respectively.

Key words： Beidagang Reservoir; uranium (U); thorium (Th); pollution characteristics; health risk; positive matrix factorization (PMF); Monte-Carlo simulations

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