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干旱区地理 >

2023 , Vol. 46 >Issue 9: 1397 - 1406

DOI: https://doi.org/10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2022.629

气候与水文

基于GRACE卫星数据的中国陆地水储量变化和影响因素分析

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  • 1.北京师范大学遥感科学国家重点实验室，北京 100875
    2.宁夏回族自治区遥感调查院，宁夏 银川 750021
石振君（1998-），女，硕士研究生，主要从事遥感应用研究. E-mail: 16678134329@163.com

网络出版日期: 2024-06-20

基金资助

宁夏自然科学基金资助项目(2022AAC03668)

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Changes and influencing factors of terrestrial water storage in China based on GRACE satellite data

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  • 1. State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Jointly Sponsored by Beijing Normal University and Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100875, China
    2. Institute of Remote Sensing & Mapping of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, Yinchuan 750021, Ningxia, China

Online published: 2024-06-20

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摘要

掌握陆地水储量变化的空间分布特点和变化情况，了解其变化的原因有助于水资源的可持续性综合管理。以中国陆地为研究区域，基于重力恢复和气候实验（GRACE）卫星反演得到的陆地水储量变化数据，使用曼-肯德尔法（Mann-Kendall，M-K）趋势检验和经验正交函数（EOF）分析了陆地水储量变化的趋势以及时空变化特征，并选择了包括气象、下垫面和社会经济3个方面的10个影响因子，即气温、降水、标准化降水蒸散发指数（SPEI）、不透水层占比、水体占比、归一化植被指数（NDVI）、高程、坡度、国内生产总值和人口，利用地理探测器、皮尔逊（Pearson）相关分析和随机森林3种方法综合分析其与陆地水储量变化的关系。结果表明：松花江、嫩江和松嫩平原附近以及柴达木盆地-长江-东南沿海条带上陆地水储量变化显著增加，中国西南以及新疆-黄土高原-华北平原条带上陆地水储量变化显著减少，从高纬度到低纬度呈现出“高-低-高-低”的变化特点。整体而言，气象因素对陆地水储量变化的解释力最强，其次是社会经济因素和下垫面因素，其中降水量是引起陆地水储量变化的主要因素。月陆地水储量变化对降水量、温度、SPEI和NDVI响应存在滞后性，且陆地水储量变化对降水量和SPEI以1个月滞后为主，对温度和NDVI的响应以无滞后（即0个月滞后）为主。

关键词： 陆地水储量变化; GRACE卫星; 影响分析; 滞后效应

本文引用格式

石振君, 朱秀芳, 唐谊娟 . 基于GRACE卫星数据的中国陆地水储量变化和影响因素分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2023 , 46(9) : 1397 -1406 . DOI: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2022.629

Abstract

Determining the spatial distribution characteristics and changes in terrestrial water storage and understanding the reasons behind these terrestrial water storage changes (TWSC) are necessary for the sustainable and comprehensive management of water resources. Based on the data of the TWSC obtained by the gravity recovery and climate experiment satellite retrieval, this study first analyzes the trend and spatiotemporal variation characteristics of the TWSC in China using the Mann-Kendall trend test and empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. Subsequently, 10 influencing factors were selected to comprehensively analyze their relationship with the TWSC by employing the following three methods: geographic detector, Pearson correlation analysis, and random forest. The 10 influencing factors were temperature, precipitation, standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), area proportion of impervious layer, area proportion of water body, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), elevation, slope, gross domestic product (GDP), and population. The results showed that areas with a significant increase in terrestrial water storage were mainly distributed in the areas near the Songhua River, Nenjiang River, and Songnen Plain, and the belt of the Qaidam Basin-Yangtze River-southeast coastal region, while areas with a significant decrease in terrestrial water storage were mainly distributed in southwest China and the belt of the Xinjiang-Loess Plateau-North China Plain. From high to low latitudes, the terrestrial water storage showed an alternating change pattern of high-low-high-low. Overall, meteorological factors had the strongest explanatory power for the TWSC, followed by socioeconomic factors and geomorphologic and geologic factors. Lag-correlation analyses showed that the monthly TWSC had a time lag response to precipitation, temperature, SPEI, and NDVI. The time lag of the monthly TWSC for each factor was different in the different regions. The response of TWSC to precipitation and SPEI mainly showed one-month lag, and the response of TWSC to temperature and NDVI mainly showed no lag (i.e. 0-month lag).

Key words： terrestrial water storage change; GRACE satellite; impact analysis; time-lag effect

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