运用隐含碳排放模型，结合Kaya恒等式和LMDI分解法，从时间和空间角度测算和分析2003—2020年中国内地除西藏以外的30个省份在能源消费过程中产生的隐含碳排放，研究隐含碳排放驱动因素的动态特征和总体状况。结果表明：（1）隐含碳排放变化趋势包括先升后降和波动上升两种类型，总体呈增长态势，增长速度存在显著的省际差异。（2）隐含碳排放空间差异明显，包括高值区、中高值区、中低值区和低值区4个等级。（3）驱动因素动态特征包括先升后降、波动上升、波动下降和先降后升4种类型，且经济产出效应和能源强度效应分别呈正向和负向驱动，能源结构效应和人口规模效应作用方向和大小均存在差异。通过优化经济增长方式、发展低碳清洁技术、推广清洁能源应用等措施，可以有效抑制隐含碳排放，促进经济低碳化发展。
This paper calculated and analysed the implicit carbon emissions produced in the energy consumption processes of 30 provinces except for Tibet in Chinese mainland from 2003 to 2020, from a temporal and spatial viewpoint using the implicit carbon emission model. Additionally, the dynamic properties and overall situation of the driving forces of implicit carbon emissions were investigated in combination with Kaya’s identity and the LMDI decomposition approach. The results showed that: (1) The implicit carbon emissions trend included two different sorts of changes: first increasing and then reducing, and fluctuating upward, exhibiting an overall increase tendency with notable inter-provincial variances in growth rate. (2) Significant geographic variations in implicit carbon emissions were found at four levels: high value zone, medium high value zone, medium low value zone, and low value zone. (3) Driving factors had four different dynamic characteristics: first increasing and then falling, fluctuation rising, fluctuation falling, and first falling and then rising. The effects of economic output and energy intensity were driven positively and adversely, respectively. The energy structure and the population size had different effects in terms of magnitude and direction. Measures can successfully suppress implicit carbon emissions and encourage low-carbon economic development by developing low-carbon and clean technology, fostering the use of clean energy, and optimising economic growth patterns.
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