综合运用探索性空间数据分析、偏最小二乘回归等方法对2010—2021年河南省城市收缩的格局特征与驱动因素进行分析。结果表明：（1）河南省出现了城市增长与收缩并存的分异现象，约51%的县（市、区）出现人口收缩现象，市辖县和距离郑州150～300 km的县（市、区）收缩现象较为严重。（2）城市收缩分布具有空间相关性，形成了高-高型、高-低型、低-高型以及低-低型四类空间聚类模式。（3）城市收缩驱动因素复杂且具有异质性，公共服务水平低、社会抚养负担重、财政自给能力差、社会消费能力弱是引发城市收缩的主要因素，但同一因素对不同类别城市收缩的影响程度不尽相同。
This paper makes an empirical analysis on the pattern characteristics and driving factors of urban shrinkage in Henan Province from 2010 to 2021 by using exploratory spatial data analysis and partial least squares regression. The results show that there is a differentiation phenomenon of coexistence of urban growth and shrinkage in Henan Province. About 51% of regions have shrinking, and the shrinkage of counties under the jurisdiction of the city and cities (districts and counties) 150～300 km away from Zhengzhou is more serious. The distribution of urban shrinkage has positive spatial correlation, forming four spatial clustering patterns: HH type growth pattern, HL type pattern, LH type pattern and LL type pattern. The driving factors of urban shrinkage are complex and heterogeneous. Low level of public services, weak social consumption capacity, extensive mode of economic development and poor financial self-sufficiency are the main factors leading to urban contraction, and the impact of the same factor on different types of urban shrinkage is different.
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