以内生增长理论为指导，采用Census X-13季节调整和HighPass滤波结合的方法，对2002—2019年海南省国内旅游经济的潜在增长趋势与周期特征进行研究。结果表明：研究期内，海南省国内旅游经济发展的潜在趋势表现为持续性增长，但增速存在“小降—稳升—放缓”的阶段性特征，周期波动效应显著，呈现出与宏观经济环境的阶段性特征高度耦合的非平稳特征。周期内部存在着显著不对等现象，但经济运行整体均衡。研究认为，旅游收入数据的复杂波形掩盖了省域旅游经济持续性稳定增长的真实特征。旅游产业本身具有内生修复能力，以旅游业作为核心产业具有一定的必然性和合理性。旅游产业整体仍处于不断转型和完善过程中，产业发展需要以政策调控的规则性帮助旅游业适应环境变化的不规律性。
Guided by the endogenous growth theory, the study uses Census X-13 seasonal adjustment and High-Pass filtering to investigate the potential growth trend and cyclical characteristics of the domestic tourism economy in Hainan Province from 2002 to 2019. The results show that over the past 18 years, the potential trend of domestic tourism economy in Hainan Province has shown continuous growth, but its rate has the phase characteristics of “small decline-steady rise-slowdown”. The cycle fluctuation effect is significant, showing a non-stationary characteristic that is highly coupled with the macroeconomic environment. There are significant inequalities within the cycle, but the overall economic performance is balanced. The study concludes that the complex waveform of tourism revenue data masks the stable growth of the provincial tourism economy. The tourism industry has an endogenous repair capacity, and there is a certain inevitability and rationality in using tourism as the core industry. The tourism industry is still in the continuous transformation and improvement, and industrial development requires the regularity of policy regulation to help the tourism industry adapt to the irregularities of environmental change.
［1］BELL W R,HILLMER S C.Issues Involved with the Seasonal Adjustment of Economic Time Series［J］. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,1984,2(4):291-320.
［2］ZARNOWITZ V.The Old and the New in U.S.Economic Expansion of the 1990s［J］. Nber Working Papers,2000,66(1):33-51.
［3］GUIZZARDI A,MAZZOCCHI M.Tourism Demand for Italy and the Business Cycle［J］.Tourism Management,2010,31(3):367-377.
［4］GETZ D.Event Tourism:Definition,Evolution and Research［J］. Tourism Management,2008,29(3):403-428.
［5］BUTLER,RICHARD.Seasonality in Tourism:Issues and Implications［J］.The Tourist Review,2001,53(3):18-24.
［6］王少华,王璐,王梦茵,等.新冠肺炎疫情对河南省旅游业的冲击表征及影响机理研究［J］.地域研究与开发,2020,39(2):1-7.
［7］李子联.随机冲击、国际贸易与经济波动［J］.当代财经,2010(9):79-88.
［8］唐承财,郭华,袁海红,等.金融危机对北京旅游业的影响分析［J］.干旱区资源与环境,2016,30(5):191-196.
［9］李维维,陈田,马晓龙.中国旅游化与城市化耦合协调关系的省际格局及形成机制分析［J］.旅游科学,2018,32(5):14-29.
［10］李闽榕.全国省域经济综合竞争力评价研究［J］.管理世界,2006(5):52-61.
［11］吴玉鸣,徐建华.中国区域经济增长集聚的空间统计分析［J］.地理科学,2004,24(6):654-659.
［12］王凯,李华,贺曲夫.我国旅游经济发展水平省际差异的空间分析［J］.地域研究与开发,2007,26(1):63-67.
［13］乔宁宁,陈建宝.宏观经济波动对我国入境旅游发展的影响分析［J］.旅游学刊,2013,28(2):44-51.
［14］潘盛俊.实际汇率变动对中国入境旅游的影响研究［J］.统计与决策,2013(16):124-127.
［15］何勋,全华.旅游产业结构变动对旅游经济增长和波动的作用机理［J］.经济管理,2013,35(8):104-115.
［16］周玲强.亚洲金融危机对我国国际旅游业的影响及对策研究［J］.浙江大学学报(人文社会科学版),1999(1):146-151.
［17］李如友,黄常州.江苏省旅游经济重心演进格局及其驱动机制［J］.地域研究与开发,2015,34(1):93-99.
［18］向艺,郑林,王成璋.旅游经济增长因素的空间计量研究［J］.经济地理,2012,32(6):162-166.
［19］左冰.中国旅游经济增长因素及其贡献度分析［J］.商业经济与管理,2011(10):82-90.
［20］王俊,徐金海,夏杰长.中国区域旅游经济空间关联结构及其效应研究:基于社会网络分析［J］.旅游学刊,2017,32(7):15-26.
［21］罗浩,颜钰荛,杨旸.中国各省的旅游增长方式“因地制宜”吗?:中国省际旅游增长要素贡献与旅游资源比较优势研究［J］.旅游学刊,2016,31(3):43-53.
［22］JANTA H,LUGOSI P,BROWN L,et al.Migrant Networks,Language Learning and Tourism Employment［J］.Tourism Management,2012,33(2):431-439.
［23］FEREIDOUNI H G,Al-MULALI U.The Interaction between Tourism and FDI in Real Estate in OECD Countries［J］.Current Issues in Tourism,2014,17(2):105-113.
［24］DIVISEKERA S.Economics of Tourist’s Consumption Behaviour:Some Evidence from Australia［J］.Tourism Management,2010,31(5):629-636.
［25］郑挺国,王霞.中国经济周期的混频数据测度及实时分析［J］.经济研究,2013,48(6):58-70.
［26］生延超,周玉姣,黄寅,等.中国旅游经济增长周期的测度与评价［J］.人文地理,2014,29(5):113-120.
［27］EECKELS B,FILIS G,LEON C.Tourism Income and Economic Growth in Greece:Empirical Evidence from Their Cyclical Components［J］.Tourism Economics,2012,18(4):817-834.
［28］何勋,全华.旅游产业结构变动对旅游经济增长和波动的作用机理［J］.经济管理,2013,35(8):104-115.
［29］SALA M,TORRES T,FARRE M.Spanish Tourism Demand:Growth Cycle and Synchronization［J］.Cuadernos De Turismo,2014(33):335-356.
［30］方叶林,黄震方,侯兵,等.中国入境游客周期波动特征及影响机理［J］.地理研究,2015,33(10):1942-1955.
［31］王晶,杨宝仁,何超.20年来新疆入境旅游经济增长周期与趋势预测［J］.干旱区资源与环境,2014,28(9):197-202.
［32］CUCCIA T,RIZZO I.Tourism Seasonality in Cultural Destinations: Empirical Evidence from Sicily［J］.Tourism Management,2011,32(3):589-595.
［33］LUCAS R E.On the Mechanics of Economic Development［J］.Journal of Monetary Economics,1989,22(1):3-42.
［34］YOUNG A.Invention and Bounded Learning by Doing［J］.Journal of Political Economy,1993,101(3):443-472.
［35］ROMER P M.Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth［J］.Journal of Political Economy,1986,94(5):1002-1037.
［36］朱勇,吴易风.技术进步与经济的内生增长:新增长理论发展述评［J］.中国社会科学,1999(1):21-39.
［37］LEE G H,LEE H.A Comparison Study of Seasonal Adjusted Series Using the X-13ARIMA-SEATS［J］.Korean Journal of Applied Statistics,2014,27(1):30-39.
［38］高铁梅.计量经济分析方法与建模:EViews应用及实例［M］.2版.北京：清华大学出版社,2009.
［39］HODRICK R J,PRESCOTT E C.Postwar U.S Business Cycles:An Empirical Investigation［J］.Journal of Money,Credit and Banking,1997,29(1):1-16.
