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  • Resource Economics
    ZHU Qiantao, HAN Chenhao, ZHU Rong
    Journal of Resources and Ecology. 2025, 16(5): 1285-1293. https://doi.org/10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2025.05.003

    As an emerging integrated economic system, the ice and snow economy holds significant importance for promoting high-quality regional economic development. This study first employs data visualization techniques to illustrate the current status of China's ice and snow economy. On this basis, it uses the LSTM neural network model to conduct a predictive analysis of its future development trends. Furthermore, by analyzing the industrial convergence mechanism and operational mechanisms of the ice and snow industry, the study explores the underlying logic driving the development of China's ice and snow economy. Finally, it identifies the challenges in its development and proposes relevant policy recommendations to promote the high-quality development of the ice and snow economy in the Chinese context. The findings show that since China was awarded the right to host the 2022 Winter Olympics in 2015, its ice and snow economy has entered a period of rapid growth. The total market scale expanded from 270 billion yuan in 2015 to 980 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 15.4%. However, the ice and snow economy still faces challenges such as homogeneous consumption structures, incomplete industrial chains, unbalanced regional development, and constraints on sustainable development. It is therefore urgent to formulate targeted solutions based on China's actual conditions, gradually establishing a well-structured ice and snow industry system characterized by clear government-market collaboration, supply-demand alignment, dynamic cost-benefit equilibrium and balanced development and protection-ultimately propelling the high-quality development of China's ice and snow economy.

  • Regular Articles
    ZHOU Guo-hua, YU Xue-xia
    JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES. 2025, 40(10): 2866-2884. https://doi.org/10.31497/zrzyxb.20251017

    At the end of 2020, the tough battle against poverty achieved a comprehensive victory, but the problem of poverty has not been completely resolved. The manifestation and governance situation of poverty have undergone new changes, and preventing large-scale poverty relapse has become a fundamental project for promoting modernization of agriculture, rural areas, and state governance. Based on a comprehensive review of the theoretical connotations of poverty reversion across multiple disciplines, this study employs bibliometric analysis method to investigate the research trajectory and key issues surrounding the study of poverty reversion, while also offering insights into potential avenues for future research expansion. The results show that: (1) Academic research on poverty reversion has evolved through three distinct phases: theoretical introduction and causal analysis, thematic expansion and methodological innovation, and academic deepening with an application-oriented focus. (2) Research on poverty reversion spans the entire process of "forward-looking prevention-procedural diagnosis-systematic governance". It has accumulated extensive research achievements and practical experiences, focusing on core topics such as the measurement and early-warning of poverty reversion risks, the inducing factors and processes of poverty reversion, and regional models and pathways for preventing the poverty reversion. (3) From the perspective of research outlook, future studies on poverty reversion should engage in more extensive and in-depth discussions focusing on theoretical localization, governance digitization, thematic deepening, and global perspectives, in order to better serve poverty governance practices, rural revitalization, and rural modernization strategies.

  • CHEN Yongtai, SHAN Binglin
    Economic geograph. 2025, 45(3): 171-180. https://doi.org/10.15957/j.cnki.jjdl.2025.03.017

    Government audit, as a key component of the national supervision system, plays a vital role in achieving the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. Based on the panel data of 277 prefecture-level cities in China from 2006 to 2019, this paper employs a spatial econometric model to investigate the spatial boundary and heterogeneity of the spatial spillover effect of government audit on carbon emissions. The research finds that: 1) Government audit not only reduces local carbon emissions but also promotes carbon reduction in adjacent cities. Moreover, this spillover effect shows the characteristics of geographical and economic boundaries, reaching its peak at a geographical distance of 400 km, and there is also an optimal economic distance spillover interval. 2) Heterogeneity analysis reveals that low-level government intervention and high-level energy consumption will make the geographical distance spillover boundary of government audit more significant. 3) Government audit can enhance public environmental awareness in local and neighboring cities, playing a role in coordinated carbon reduction. Based on the above, it proposes that the government can achieve the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals and promote the government audit development by the means of strengthening regional cooperation and coordination, reducing differences in urban characteristics, increasing public participation in supervision, and strengthening sci-tech innovation and R&D.

  • CHEN Huashuai, XIE Keqin, ZHANG Qisheng
    Economic geograph. 2025, 45(3): 129-138. https://doi.org/10.15957/j.cnki.jjdl.2025.03.013

    Based on the data of Baidu search index of ChatGPT from December 2022 to June 2023 this article analyzes the evolution characteristics and influence mechanism of generative artificial intelligence (GenAI for short) attention degree by the ArcGIS, multivariable linear regression model, and spatial econometric model. The results show that: 1) GenAI attention degree showed the inverted-V evolution trend in China during the research period. 2) GenAI attention degree had the characteristics of regional agglomeration, which initially showed the distribution of a giant block shape with the Shandong Peninsula, the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta as the cores, later evolved into the distribution of a small block shape. 3) Scientific and technological development, corporate development, advanced industrial structure, education level, degree of opening up, digital infrastructure and government support all had a significant positive effect on GenAI attention degree, and in addition to the digital infrastructure, the other influencing factors have the spatial spillover effect, which is the main reason for the regional aggregation of GenAI attention degree. Based on the research conclusions, this article proposes some suggestions that are increasing the technological investment and policy support for high-tech cities, establishing a high-level talent training system, improving relevant regulations and ethical standards to promote the development of GenAI industry and optimize the layout of high-tech industry.

  • Resource Economics
    WANG Haichun, XIAO Xiao, WANG Sheng, ZHU Hongtao
    Journal of Resources and Ecology. 2025, 16(5): 1315-1326. https://doi.org/10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2025.05.006

    In 2022, Chinese policymakers emphasized the importance of leveraging the country’s domestic energy resource endowments and implementing a phased and well-planned carbon peaking strategy by following the principle of “establishing the new before phasing out the old”. To explore the carbon reduction potential and path optimization in resource-based regions undergoing energy structure adjustments, this study employed the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) to simulate and analyze both a baseline scenario and a comprehensive policy intervention scenario from 2021 to 2050. This study focused on the typical resource-based region of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and developed a customized “LEAP-Inner Mongolia” model. The findings reveal that: (1) Under the comprehensive scenario, energy demand is notably reduced by 2050, with total carbon emissions cut by 70.96% compared to the baseline scenario; (2) The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) analysis suggests a persistent rise in emissions under the baseline scenario, while a carbon peak is achieved as early as 2029 under the integrated scenario; and (3) There are limitations of isolated policy instruments so a synergistic approach that integrates power generation structure optimization with improvements in energy efficiency is necessary. Accordingly, we propose a multi-pronged policy portfolio that includes the synchronized development of clean energy and efficient end-use systems, industrial low-carbon transformation, accelerated adoption of new energy vehicles, and improved inter-regional coordination. These recommendations can offer systemic insights for guiding low-carbon transitions in resource-based areas.

  • Regular Articles
    CHEN Qi-qi, FANG Wen-chu, YUAN Yu-han, FENG Jian
    JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES. 2025, 40(9): 2398-2416. https://doi.org/10.31497/zrzyxb.20250907

    The development of characteristic agriculture is an important approach to achieving rural revitalization and promoting county-level economic development by stimulating industrial vitality. How to combine resource advantages and transform them into industrial strengths is the key to build a high-quality characteristic agriculture industry. This paper selects 31 county-level characteristic agriculture cases as research objects, constructs a TOE and dual-dimensional theoretical indicator system, and uses fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) to extract element combinations and examine the influencing factors and differentiated paths of characteristic agricultural development in China's county-level areas. The study shows that: (1) "organizational resources" and "crop varieties" are the core factors for achieving high-quality development in county-level characteristic agriculture. (2) The high-quality development of county-level characteristic agriculture presents mixed development models, including market-oriented, organization-oriented, and technology-oriented models, as well as outward development models embedded in elements and inward development models relying on endowments. (3) Non-high-quality development of county-level characteristic agriculture exists in outward deficiency models constrained by organizations and mixed deficiency models constrained by organizations-environment and technology-environment. (4) The integration of multiple resource paths from both internal and external drivers is more effective than relying on a single internal or external driver in constructing action mechanisms for high-quality characteristic agriculture development. Based on the above research results, this paper proposes diversified, complementary, and integrated development path suggestions for county-level characteristic agriculture in China, providing a reference for achieving agricultural and rural modernization.

  • Qing Liu, Guofeng Wu, Qian Yao, Hanqing Xu, Yiying Niu, Xuchen Wei, Jun Wang, Mengya Li
    Tropical Geography. 2025, 45(4): 527-539. https://doi.org/10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.20240785

    Coastal cities are highly vulnerable to compound flooding in which multiple flood drivers interact via complex nonlinear mechanisms under climate change. Although numerous studies have focused on individual flood drivers, integrated analyses of the spatiotemporal variations and compound effects remain limited. This study applied a high-resolution MRI-AGCM3-2-S climate model and the TempestExtremes tracking algorithm to construct a 6-hourly Tropical Cyclone (TC) track dataset affecting Haikou from 1960 to 2099. Storm tides during the TCs were simulated using the D-Flow FM model, whereas upstream river discharges were modeled with CaMa-Flood, incorporating climate-model-derived runoff data. Using rainfall data from the climate model, we applied the peak-over-threshold method and extreme value analysis to systematically assess changes in storm tides, rainfall, and upstream discharge under climate change. These analyses guided the construction of compound flood scenarios for simulating extreme events. Using a compound flood simulation model, we assessed the hazards under 10-year and 50-year Return Periods (RPs) for historical (1960–2014) and future (2015–2099) periods. Results indicate that significant differences exist in the compound flood characteristics between historical and future periods. In the 90th percentile scenario, all three flood drivers exhibited higher future thresholds, suggesting an increased risk of compound extreme flood events. The probability of concurrent heavy rainfall and high discharge events increased by 40.9%, whereas the probability of simultaneous high storm surge and high discharge events increased by 58.3%. Despite the potential reduction in extreme event intensity, the frequency of compounding events has increased significantly. Extreme value analysis revealed that extreme storm surges and upstream discharge events became more severe and extreme rainfall events showed a decreasing trend. For high RPs (e.g., 50-year events), the projected storm tides and upstream discharges significantly exceeded historical levels. Specifically, projected increases in storm surge levels (+0.24 m under 50-year RP) and upstream discharge (+1,271.13 m³/s) are offset by a 16.5% decline in 100-year accumulated rainfall for Haikou when compared to historical period. Third, compound flood simulations showed that under the 10-year RP scenario, the total inundation area slightly increased, but the flood volume and maximum depth decreased, indicating the stabilization of the flood hazard. However, under the 50-year RP scenario, both the inundation area and flood volume increased substantially, with the area experiencing flood depths greater than 3 m expanding by 56.5%. The most severe flooding occurred along the northern coastal areas and banks of the Nandu River, where the inundation extent and flood severity increased markedly. These findings provide valuable insights for flood risk assessments and adaptive planning in coastal cities facing intensifying climate-induced hazards.

  • Regular Articles
    QIAN Min, ZHANG Hong, DAI Ji-cai, ZHANG Hui-ling
    JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES. 2025, 40(10): 2735-2754. https://doi.org/10.31497/zrzyxb.20251010

    Traditional village tourism symbiosis system is based on the symbiosis unit formed by the interdependence of elements between villages, in the symbiosis environment, with the help of a variety of interactive synergistic relationships and symbiosis modes of construction of the organic whole. It aims to integrate village tourism resources, promote village symbiosis linkage, and enhance the effect of regional tourism development. Based on the symbiosis theory, the article clarifies the three elements of the symbiosis system, such as symbiosis unit, symbiosis mode and symbiosis environment. Along the path of "tourism source-resistance surface-tourism corridor", the traditional village tourism symbiosis system is constructed. We analyze the characteristics of traditional villages' tourism resources, clarify the spatial patterns of different types of symbiotic systems, and propose a tourism development model. The results show that: (1) There are 33 symbiotic units of traditional villages in Chongqing, with large spatial differences in the value of ecological and cultural resources in different places. There are 21 high-value symbiotic units, accounting for 63.63% of the total, which are mainly distributed in the southeastern mountains where minorities gather. (2) There are 83 traditional village tourism corridors in Chongqing, and the average value of symbiotic environment maturity score is 0.068, showing the spatial pattern of "West Chongqing>Northeast Chongqing>Southeast Chongqing". (3) The symbiotic systems of traditional village tourism in Chongqing are categorized into cultural heritage type, ecological landscape type, and ecological and cultural comprehensive development type, accounting for 59.04%, 14.46%, and 26.51%, respectively. Each type of system makes full use of the interaction between natural landscape and minority culture, farming culture, etc. to enhance the development capacity of traditional village tourism and promote common prosperity. The innovative contribution of this study lies in constructing a symbiotic system for traditional village tourism based on symbiosis theory. It successfully solves the problem of isolated tourism development among traditional villages. It provides an important reference and methodology for comprehensively integrating traditional village tourism resources, constructing a new pattern of tourism development, and promoting diversified and high-quality development of traditional villages.

  • LI Jialin, SHEN Xingwen, TIAN Peng, GONG Hongbo
    Economic geograph. 2025, 45(3): 32-43. https://doi.org/10.15957/j.cnki.jjdl.2025.03.004

    This paper establishes a comprehensive evaluation index system for achieving common prosperity in Zhejiang Province from the aspects of income distribution gaps, disparities in regional urban-rural development, shared public services, material economy, spiritual and humanistic needs, ecological environment, and social harmony. This system investigates the development characteristics and influencing factors of common prosperity of Zhejiang Province at provincial and prefectural levels. The results show that: 1) From 1990 to 2020, the level of common prosperity in Zhejiang Province increased from 42.36% to 76.06%. From 2005 to 2020, the level of common prosperity showed a stable upward trend at prefectural level. 2) From 2005 to 2020, the overall level of common prosperity improved across prefecture-level cities from 2005 to 2020, regional disparities among these cities also widened. 3) Income distribution gaps gradually replaced the material economy as the primary obstacle at the criterion level for common prosperity in Zhejiang Province. The influence of the ecological environment on the development of common prosperity in Zhejiang Province has gradually increased, while the impact of common public services has decreased. The Gini coefficient emerged as the most extensive and profound obstacle factor at the criterion level for common prosperity among prefecture-level cities in Zhejiang Province. To promote the development of common prosperity in Zhejiang Province, it proposes the following strategies: improving the mechanism for public services to ensure high-quality common services, boosting residents' income to broaden the path from the well-off to the less privileged, advancing ecological civilization to firmly establish a path for green development, and encouraging regions to strive for excellence and disseminate exemplary experiences.

  • Urban Renewal and Governance Reform
    CHEN Yi-chen, CHEN Shu-xiang
    JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES. 2025, 40(6): 1523-1540. https://doi.org/10.31497/zrzyxb.20250606

    Based on the unique geographical and historical background, red brick has become a distinctive urban characteristic in the Fujian-Taiwan region, with its complex cultural background endowing it with rich potential value. However, the current inheritance and continuation of red brick cultural genes face significant challenges. In this study, we apply scene theory to Quanzhou West Street historical and cultural district, which is the most representative red brick area in Quanzhou. This study adopts the framework of the five elements of a scene to analyze the evaluation process of carrier characteristics, behavioral perception, and amenity value. Through a combination of field research, in-depth interviews, surveys, and big data statistical analysis, we investigate the evaluation indicator system for scene amenities at two levels: the macro-level of the entire district and the micro-level of red brick buildings. Our research findings reveal: (1) The scene elements of the red brick historical district include spatial environment, functional medium, diverse groups, activity combinations, and value attraction. (2) The scene functions of the overall district environment include: historical artifacts, cultural displays, and consumption experiences. These three aspects are interrelated, but the overall satisfaction of Quanzhou West Street still needs improvement. (3) The amenities of red brick architecture can be categorized into four types: color aesthetics, texture, decorative details, and regional characteristics. These categories include 12 traditional architectural features such as red bricks, white stones, wood, windows, balconies, external structures, beam decorations, columns, bricklaying methods, internal spaces, main structures, and roofs. Finally, we propose principles for protection and renewal, specific measures, and strategies for controlling the architectural style of red brick buildings. Our research extends the empirical application of scene theory in China, and provides effective approaches for the protection and renewal of historical and cultural districts.

  • Regular Articles
    WANG Xue-ji, PANG Zhao-ling, ZHANG Hai-zhou
    JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES. 2025, 40(9): 2334-2350. https://doi.org/10.31497/zrzyxb.20250903

    The innovative development of tourism resources in the context of the construction of a strong tourism country concerns the fundamental task of high-quality development of tourism. Scene theory, which is based on cultural consumption and cultural practice and emphasizes local cultural style and aesthetic characteristics, provides a new perspective for tourism resource innovation. On the basis of clarifying the connotation of tourism scene theory, this paper analyzes the logic and path of scene-driven tourism resource innovation with Yucun and Anjihood, Anji, Zhejiang province as typical cases. It is found that: as an important cultural power to drive the innovation of tourism resources, scene has formed two basic logics of creative production and creative weaving, the former embodied in the scene as a form of new quality productive forces to stimulate creativity, with the system and activities as the internal mechanism to attract and cohesion of creative talents and trigger the creative groups to carry out creative practices, resulting in the scene of the internal resonance, which drives the continuous creation of new tourism resources; the latter embodied in the scene as the reconstruction of the structure of tourism resources. Scene as the weaving force to reconstruct the structure of tourism resources, with capital and media as the internal mechanism, to create an aesthetic style and attract consumer groups to take pictures, resulting in the external resonance of the scene, which in turn drives the re-empowerment of silent resources. This paper reveals two different paths of scene-driven tourism resource innovation from the perspective of scene theory, with a view to expanding the value connotation of scene creation in tourism resource innovation and tourist destination shaping, and providing new ideas for tourism resource innovation in the New Era.

  • TANG Mi, LUO Xiaolong, ZHANG Xianchun, YANG Lingfan
    Economic geograph. 2025, 45(5): 46-56. https://doi.org/10.15957/j.cnki.jjdl.2025.05.005

    Based on the rescaling theory and the practice of the cross-boundary governance, this paper constructs a framework for the coordinated governance of cross-boundary regions (CBRs) in line with national strategies. Taking the Yangtze River Delta Ecological and Green Integration Development Demonstration Zone as a typical case, it further summarizes the logic and paths of central-local joint governance in CBRs. The study reveals that: First, the collaborative governance of CBRs adopts a flexible approach, with the central government providing guidance and supervision and local governments implementing, By reconstructing the discourse system, the state redefines governance principles and policy frameworks, there by reserving ample implementation flexibility for local governments. This, in turn, enables multi-level government cooperation to exhibit gradualness and stability, effectively breaking through development barriers caused by administrative divisions through coordinated resource allocation and strategic alignment. Second, in the process of cross-boundary regional governance, the central government attempts to reconcile local relations and optimize the distribution of local interests by reconstructing the spatial governance system, ultimately solving problems such as the lack of attention from local governments on cross-boundary governance affairs, fierce competition among regions, and fragmented governance power in cross-boundary regions. During this process, cross-boundary regions have not only become strategic arrangements for the central government to promote the adjustment of the powers and responsibilities of local governments, but also transformed into spatial expressions for the joint promotion of governance reconstruction by the national and local authorities. Third, the state builds a multi-level cross-boundary governance network through, specifically, adjusting the discourse system, restructuring governance leadership mechanisms, and optimizing power relations to enhance regional cooperation of CBRs. Focusing on the vertical reorganization of administrative subject power, the horizontal reconstruction of local competitive and cooperative relations, and the adjustment of responsibility and authority relations among regions, it specifically addresses the issue of fragmented development in CBRs. Under the mobilization of the central government and the active response of local governments, CBRs have achieved vertical hierarchical leapfrogging and horizontal cross-boundary integration in CBRs, thereby ensuring the reasonable distribution of interests among regions while realizing the intentions of the central government.

  • Li Xiuyuan, Guo Shu
    GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCE. 2025, 45(5): 1071-1082. https://doi.org/10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.20240570

    Industrial heritage is an important resource and cultural carrier of industrial tourism. How to realize the organic integration between industrial heritage and tourism utilization has become an urgent problem for the sustainable development of industrial heritage. In this paper, industrial heritage in northeast China is selected as the research object, and ArcGIS spatial analysis, concentration index and resource dominance are used to analyze its spatial distribution characteristics, and the relationship between industrial heritage resources and tourism utilization is discussed. The following conclusions are drawn: Industrial heritage in northeast China is dominated by heavy industry and less light industry, and the type distribution is significantly different among provinces. The spatial distribution type of industrial heritage in northeast China is clustered, and it shows an obvious unbalanced structure at city scale. The superiority degree of industrial heritage resources in northeast China is quite different, which mainly has the distribution characteristics of polar core area, highly dense area, sub-dense area and sparse area. Based on this, the author puts forward the utilization methods of industrial heritage tourism from the aspects of promoting the overall balanced development of industrial heritage resources, accelerating the transformation of industrial heritage resources into products, and promoting the brand building of industrial heritage resources products, so as to provide reference for the sustainable development and utilization of industrial heritage.The industrial heritage resources in northeast China exhibit spatial distribution differences, low levels of resource to product conversion, and weak brand effects. Based on this, promote the overall balanced development of industrial heritage resources in the region, form an effective connection and interaction of regional industries with “industrial culture+”, and enhance the potential and efficiency of linkage; Accelerate the transformation of industrial heritage resources into products, and in the process of preserving, changing, and restructuring the functions of various industrial heritage resources, adapt to the needs of urban functional development, and promote the cross-border integration of cultural and tourism resources; Promote the branding of industrial heritage resource products, fully explore industrial cultural elements in the branding of various industrial heritage resources, and propose industrial heritage tourism utilization methods in terms of creating themed, diverse, and experiential industrial tourism products, providing reference for the sustainable development and utilization of industrial heritage.

  • BAO Zhenshan, WANG Jinwei, LUO Xuehua
    Economic geograph. 2025, 45(5): 103-112. https://doi.org/10.15957/j.cnki.jjdl.2025.05.011

    This study utilizes the entropy method to measure the high-quality development level of the digital economy and circulation industry in 30 provincial-level regions of China from 2012 to 2021. It empirically examines the impact mechanisms and spatial spillover effects of digital economy on the regional high-quality development of circulation industry using the methods of fixed effects model and spatial Durbin model. The main findings are as follows: 1) The development of the digital economy exerts a significantly positive impact on the high-quality development of the circulation industry, exhibiting a spatial pattern that weakens gradually from the western region to the eastern region and the central region. 2) The digital economy promotes the high-quality development of the circulation industry through the transmission channels of human capital, industrial upgrading, and innovation output. Enhancing human capital and innovation output is the long-term pathways for the digital economy to empower the high-quality development of the circulation industry. 3) The circulation industry demonstrates overall spatial agglomeration patterns of "high-high" and "low-low", presenting a tendency toward regional equilibrium or broader spatial diffusion. 4) The digital economy's enabling effects on the high-quality development of the circulation industry reveal significant polarization-trickle-down effects, accompanied by a tendency toward spatial spillover.

  • Regular Articles
    CAO Cui, MA Li-bang, WU Shan-shan, YAO Li-tang
    JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES. 2025, 40(10): 2808-2827. https://doi.org/10.31497/zrzyxb.20251014

    The exploration of homestead withdrawal can provide an important decision-making reference and theoretical support for deepening the reform of rural land system and accelerating the process of urban-rural integration and development. This paper takes Qingshui county in Gansu province as the research area, and based on the perceived value theory, combined with the hierarchical regression model, analyses the mechanism of risk perception and comprehensive satisfaction on the willingness of farmers to withdraw from homesteads by using 1025 micro-survey data, and further classifies the types of willingness of farmers to withdraw from homesteads. The results show that: (1) Risk perception negatively affects homestead withdrawal, with cognitive risk perception having the strongest effect and the facility risk perception being the weakest. (2) Comprehensive satisfaction has a negative effect on homestead withdrawal, with life satisfaction having the most significant effect and the satisfaction with public services and facilities being the weakest. (3) In the analysis of the contribution of independent variables, in terms of risk perception, the risk perception of the homestead withdrawal is the highest, and the perception of owning multiple homesteads is the lowest. In terms of comprehensive satisfaction, the water and electricity facilities receive the highest ratings, while cultural and entertainment amenities are rated the lowest. (4) Based on the two-dimensional analysis framework of 'psychological perception-emotional cognition', the willingness of farmers to withdraw from homesteads can be classified into four types: high-risk avoidance, high-satisfaction trade-off, medium-risk guidance, and low-risk drive. This paper proposes categorized governance strategies to address the characteristics of different types of farm households, aiming to provide a decision-making basis for sustainable rural land use.

  • Regular Articles
    WAN Xin, SUN Hui-jiao, XU Nuo, ZHANG Zi-hang, ZHANG Yi, XIANG Chao
    JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES. 2025, 40(10): 2652-2667. https://doi.org/10.31497/zrzyxb.20251005

    Historic and cultural districts serve as vital carriers for the inheritance of urban and rural cultural heritage, and their sustainable renewal urgently requires deep resident participation. This study integrates value co-creation theory and sense of place theory to develop a driving model of participatory renewal: "perceived value-place attachment-value co-creation", examining how multidimensional value perceptions and place attachment shape residents' engagement mechanisms. Using structural equation modeling analysis of 338 valid questionnaires from Nanjing's Old South district, the findings reveal three critical pathways. First, residents' perceived functional value and economic value significantly enhance participation behavior and civic behavioral intentions through the full mediation of place dependence, indicating that instrumental dependence serves as a direct mechanism transforming material needs into actions. Second, perceived emotional value derived from cultural continuity exerts dual effects, directly driving both types of value co-creation intentions and also uniquely activating civic behaviors through the "place identity" pathway. This demonstrates that local emotions rooted in collective memory can bypass institutional constraints to generate spontaneous cultural stewardship. Third, community support exhibits paradoxical moderating effects: while it amplifies the economic value-place dependence linkage, excessive administrative intervention weakens emotional value's impact on place dependence, revealing tensions between institutional empowerment and grassroots cultural agency. These findings challenge traditional economic incentive paradigms by highlighting the catalytic role of cultural identity and emotional capital. Accordingly, a governance framework is proposed: (1) establishing cultural identity reproduction mechanisms through resident-led heritage interpretation, (2) implementing demand-tiered resource allocation that prioritizes functional necessities like sanitation, (3) developing adaptive community support systems that delineate administrative boundaries in cultural practices. This research contributes to urban governance literature by uncovering the psychosocial process from spatial perception to collective action, while offering practical strategies to reconcile preservation and renovation through value symbiosis.

  • LI Kexin, YE Xu, MAO Zhonggen
    Economic geograph. 2025, 45(3): 87-97. https://doi.org/10.15957/j.cnki.jjdl.2025.03.009

    The optimization of spatial pattern in consumption competitiveness holds significant importance for unleashing consumption potential and promoting the integrated development of urban agglomeration consumption. This paper delves into consumption competitiveness from the aspects of actual competitiveness and potential competitiveness, evaluates the consumption competitiveness of 242 cities at prefecture level or above in China. It utilizes Moran's I and the gravity model to primarily dissects the spatial patterns of consumption competitiveness in five seminal urban agglomerations. Furthermore, it analyzes the driving factors of consumption competitiveness by the means of the Geodetector. The results show that: 1) Consumption competitiveness is on the rise, exhibiting a geographical pattern characterized by higher levels in the east and lower levels in the west, with a trend of expansion from coastal to inland areas and diffusion from highly competitive cities to their surrounding regions. 2) While the interconnectedness of consumption competitiveness among the five urban agglomerations is gradually intensifying, the correlations within each agglomeration exhibit distinct characteristics. 3) Consumption competitiveness demonstrates spatial clustering and positive spatial correlation. Specifically, urban agglomerations such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Pearl River Delta exert a positive spillover effect, whereas provincial capitals in the central and western regions exhibit a siphon effect. 4) The levels of financial development, government support, and digital industry progression are primary factors influencing the spatial disparities in consumption competitiveness, and the interaction between different factors shows an enhanced relationship.

  • Regular Articles
    ZHANG Kai, LU Hai-shu
    JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES. 2025, 40(9): 2417-2447. https://doi.org/10.31497/zrzyxb.20250908

    Different from the previous water rights management at the meso regional level and micro water user level, this article puts the initial water rights of the river basin in the macro common wealth framework, systematically optimizes the initial water rights allocation of the basin from the perspective of fairness and efficiency, constructs a traditional, weighted, sequential bankruptcy game model to clarify the initial water rights allocation scheme, evaluates the overall welfare of the basin using the Kaldor-Hicks criterion, and applies it to the Tarim River Basin, and the Yellow River Basin is used as a substitute basin for testing. The results indicate that: (1) The initial water rights allocation principle is in line with the connotation and value orientation of common prosperity, but the quantitative measurement of fairness and efficiency needs to be improved. The traditional bankruptcy game model has defects such as multidimensional preferences and data distortion, which can be corrected by weighting and other methods. (2) The weight factors of fair negotiation, labor remuneration, and river order make the initial water rights allocation more balanced and fair, with a greater degree of adjustment in labor remuneration. The weight factors of efficiency based water conservancy investment and water resource utilization efficiency make the initial water rights allocation plan more focused on the competitiveness of water resource utilization. After incorporating the river sequence factor into the bankruptcy game model, this research can reflect the information asymmetry of the geographical location of multiple subjects in the basin and the resulting heterogeneity of negotiation status. (3) The Kaldo-Hicks criterion focuses more on improving the overall social benefits when evaluating initial water rights allocation schemes, allowing for individual benefits to decrease while overall benefits increase. It improves the rigorous optimization conditions of the Pareto criterion and is more applicable in practical applications. We should integrate initial water rights allocation into the common prosperity framework, examining how fairness, efficiency, and river sequence factors influence priority-setting among multiple stakeholders in river basins. This approach offers new perspectives for initial water rights allocation and provides a policy foundation for establishing basin-wide allocation systems that advance common prosperity.

  • Regular Articles
    CHEN Yi-yong, ZHOU Yue, ZHANG Zhao-xia
    JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES. 2025, 40(10): 2847-2865. https://doi.org/10.31497/zrzyxb.20251016

    Rural hollowing reflects spatial-functional misalignment among population, land, and industry during rural restructuring. Understanding its morphology and dynamics is essential for formulating precise, geography-informed rural revitalization strategies. This study explores the Zhuhai-Bayannur transect encompassing 224 counties, with a particular emphasis on the spatial heterogeneity of rural hollowing shaped by variations in physical geography and socio-economic development. The research constructs a multidimensional assessment framework that examines rural hollowing through the lenses of population dynamics, land utilization, and industrial structure. It further delivers a systematic interpretation of the spatial differentiation and temporal progression of rural hollowing, while elucidating the principal driving mechanisms behind its formation. The research findings are as follows: (1) From 2000 to 2020, rural hollowing in the sample belt progressively intensified. Spatially, it demonstrates zonal differentiation, tiered advancement, and spatial agglomeration. (2) Rural hollowing exhibits significant gradient characteristics. The eastern region remains relatively stable, the central region has undergone rapid development, while the western region has remained persistently high. The severity of hollowing increases with elevation. Municipal districts, which began experiencing hollowing earlier, exhibit the slowest growth rate, while county-level regions, which lagged behind, show the fastest acceleration. (3) Geographically weighted regression analysis reveals that seven factors consistently and significantly influence rural hollowing, with marked spatial heterogeneity. The ratio of agricultural population to the total population and per capita net income of rural residents act as constraints on rural hollowing, while per-unit fiscal revenue exerts a predominantly positive influence. The growth in urbanization rate does not exert a sustained impact on rural hollowing. (4) Utilizing self-organizing map clustering and zonal methodologies, the sample belt is classified into seven typological regions of hollowing. Each zone displays distinct characteristics driven by disparities in natural endowments and economic development. Drawing on the findings, this paper proposes tailored governance strategies for region-specific subsystems to mitigate rural decline and underpin sustainable development and revitalization efforts.

  • TIAN Fengjun, LI Xiao, XU Keshuai, LIU Dengjun, WANG Zhonglie, LI Xiangming, LEI Mengyuan, YANG Ping, CHEN Ruyi
    Economic geograph. 2025, 45(3): 201-210. https://doi.org/10.15957/j.cnki.jjdl.2025.03.020

    Based on the check-in spot data shared by users of Xiaohongshu platform and the POI data of Amap, this study explores the spatial distribution of urban Internet-famous recreational spaces (IRSs) and physical recreational spaces (PRSs) and their differences in main urban area of Changsha by the means of spatial analysis methods, and reveals its formation mechanisms using the grounded theory method according to online texts and interview transcripts. The results indicate that: 1) Overall, IRSs in Changsha's main urban area exhibit the distribution trend of a northeast-southwest orientation, while PRSs exhibit the distribution trend of a northwest-southeast orientation. The clustering intensity and scale distance of IRSs are both weaker than that of PRSs, showing a "polar-core with multiple points" distribution pattern with distinct core-periphery characteristics, while PRSs display a "single-core with multi-centered patchy" distribution. 2) Compared with PRSs, The high-cluster areas of IRSs in Changsha have notably shifted westward, primarily concentrating in high-vitality public recreational areas such as urban waterfronts, suburban mountainous regions, and commercial district. 3) The formation of IRSs' distribution characteristics is the result of the joint action of human-media-place and other factors. The characteristics and charms of urban PRSs provide a physical basis for the formation of IRSs' distribution characteristics. The popularity and influence of social media have strengthened the formation of IRSs' distribution characteristics, the change of the psychology and behavioural patterns of tourists is an important trigger for the formation of IRSs' characteristics. Based on the above, this research proposes specific measures for shaping IRSs from the perspectives of human, media, and place respectively.

  • SHU Xiaolin, CHEN Yang, WANG Meiling, WU Zhaodong, SHAN Shuxing, LIU Dongqiang
    Economic geograph. 2025, 45(9): 249-259. https://doi.org/10.15957/j.cnki.jjdl.2025.09.025

    The sustainability of rural sports-themed Internet-famous tourism destinations has become a major issue in both sports and tourism. Taking the "Village Super League" in Guizhou as a case study, this paper explores the long-term popularity mechanism of the "Village Super League" based on the modified diamond model theoretical framework, and conducts an empirical analysis using the methods of structural equation modeling (SEM) and importance-performance analysis (IPA). The findings reveal that: 1) The overall sustainability level of "Village Super League" in Guizhou is relatively high. Scores of three indexes are prominently high, which are the active public participation, the potential for continued popularity, and the organizing committee's capacity for sustained operations. 2) The government, production factors, demand conditions, related and supporting industries, and strategy are all core factors in the modified diamond model. These factors interact positively with each other and are significantly related to the sustainability of the "Village Super League", jointly forming a dynamic mechanism for the long-term popularity of the "Village Super League" in Guizhou. 3) The sustainable development advantages of the "Village Super League" in Guizhou are concentrated in 14 factors such as live atmosphere, local villagers' participation, and government support. Six factors requiring urgent improvement include sufficient volunteers, local transportation convenience, tourists' access to public tourism information, local accommodation experience, the completeness and adequacy of local public facilities, and unified management by the organizing committee. Six factors that need to be gradually promoted for the sustainability of the "Village Super League" include "the network traffic and popularity brought by celebrity participation, local cultural tourism products, local tourism specialty goods, and competition venue conditions". The participation of "various food teams" among people from all walks of life in the maintenance area has potential value. Finally, it provides corresponding policy recommendations.

  • Regular Articles
    DAI Li, YANG Han-sheng, YANG Gang-qiao, WEI Wei
    JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES. 2025, 40(10): 2755-2773. https://doi.org/10.31497/zrzyxb.20251011

    Agricultural productive services, as a critical solution to alleviate the "high-carbon lock-in" dilemma in smallholder-dominated agricultural systems, reshape production modes through specialized divisions of labor. However, their emission reduction potential risks are being distorted into a "solution-to-paradox" scenario as a result of policy interventions. Employing panel data from 30 Chinese provincial-level regions (2011-2022), this study systematically deciphers the mechanisms and policy intricacies of agricultural productive services in driving carbon mitigation through integrated fixed-effects, mediation-effects, and threshold regression modeling. Core revelations emerge as follows: (1) The development of agricultural productive services exerts significant inhibitory effects on agricultural carbon emissions. Specifically, a 1% improvement in the implementation level of agricultural productive services corresponds to a 0.160% reduction in agricultural carbon emissions. However, the emission reduction efficacy is subject to bidirectional moderation by aging rural labor forces and fiscal agricultural support policies. (2) The regulatory effects manifest a dynamic tension between "demographic amplification" and "subsidy suppression" and rural labor aging elevates emission reduction elasticity through intensified demand for factor substitution, whereas fiscal agricultural support exceeding the 0.1386 threshold triggers a fertilizer rebound effect under yield-centric subsidy schemes, diminishing mitigation efficiency. (3) The carbon mitigation effects of agricultural productive services exhibit tripartite heterogeneity: policy dependency, east-west efficacy disparity, and basin-specific divergence. Specifically, the emission suppression capacity intensifies remarkably following the implementation of sectoral guidance policies, verifying their institutional catalytic role. Geographically, west regions of the Hu Huanyong Line constrained by underdeveloped service markets and the Pearl River Basin plagued by carbon lock-in effects from cash crop specialization, achieved less than one-third of the decarbonization efficacy observed in the eastern regions and the Yellow River Basin. This study unveils the nonlinear "emission reduction-policy" nexus inherent to agricultural productive services, establishing theoretical foundations to resolve institutional conflicts between service efficiency enhancement and fiscal interventions while informing the construction of differentiated low-carbon agricultural policy frameworks. These insights hold significant practical value for synchronizing agricultural green transformation with rural revitalization strategies, offering a coherent pathway to reconcile ecological modernization with socioeconomic development imperatives.

  • Ecotourism
    ZHANG Xu
    Journal of Resources and Ecology. 2025, 16(3): 907-918. https://doi.org/10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2025.03.026

    Rural homestays are a vital component of rural tourism development. With the deep implementation of the rural revitalization strategy, rural homestays have increasingly become a focal point for young urban tourists. Based on the Stimulus-Organism-Response (S-O-R) model, this study systematically explores the impacts of the brand experience, information quality, and tourism atmosphere of rural homestays on the emotions and satisfaction of young urban tourists through an empirical analysis. The data for the study came from a questionnaire survey of various rural lodgings in the city of Beijing, resulting in 428 valid samples. Using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM), this study revealed that brand experience, information quality, and tourism atmosphere are external stimuli that significantly influence tourist emotions. Specifically, these three factors both enhance positive emotions and reduce or alleviate negative emotions. Furthermore, the positive emotions have a significant positive effect on tourist satisfaction, while negative emotions have a significant negative impact. Specific recommendations for rural homestay operations based on these findings are given. These recommendations will not only help to improve the market competitiveness of rural homestays but also provide valuable theoretical and practical insights for the sustainable development of rural tourism.

  • Experts Interviews
    YANG Xiao-hui, LUO Wei, CHEN Hua-wen, LIN Ji-fu, WANG Min, ZHU He, KANG Li, ZHOU Jian-ming, SUN Ye-hong, GE Lei
    JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES. 2025, 40(9): 2297-2315. https://doi.org/10.31497/zrzyxb.20250901

    Intangible cultural heritage (ICH) is a crucial cultural resource and an integral part of China's excellent traditional culture. Protecting, inheriting, and promoting ICH is significant for preserving historical context, strengthening cultural confidence, fostering civilizational exchanges, and building a socialist cultural power. After over two decades of efforts, China has achieved remarkable progress in ICH protection and accumulated valuable experience. Currently, ICH preservation is transitioning from "rescue-oriented protection" to "systematic protection", marked by new characteristics. This special discussion invites experts and scholars from ICH and related fields to explore topics such as ICH protection system construction, innovative protection models, and inheritance pathways. Based on their insights, the following priorities emerge for innovative protection and inheritance in the New Era: (1) Promote systematic ICH protection by emphasizing the relationship between ICH and its environment, implementing regional holistic conservation through cultural ecological reserves, and building a people-centered protection system. (2) As a crystallization of ethnic wisdom and a key bond for consolidating the Chinese national community, ICH must connect with contemporary life. Multi-stakeholder collaboration should facilitate its integration into modern society to achieve creative transformation and innovative development. (3) Technology and tourism can empower ICH protection and inheritance across multiple dimensions. However, the core objective of heritage preservation must remain paramount. Strategic integration of technological tools can deepen ICH-tourism synergies, improve heritage experience infrastructure, facilitate ICH preservation and adaptive reuse, and effectively support both rural revitalization and urban renewal initiatives.

  • Regular Articles
    ZHENG Jun, ZHONG Jia-wei
    JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES. 2025, 40(10): 2701-2717. https://doi.org/10.31497/zrzyxb.20251008

    Based on the research samples of 30 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) in China from 2010 to 2022, this paper uses the entropy weight method, comprehensive adaptation and Spatial econometric model to conduct an empirical analysis on the temporal and spatial evolution and influencing factors of rural three-industry integration and agricultural green transformation. The results show that: (1) On the comprehensive evaluation, during the inspection period, the level of China's rural three-industry integration and agricultural green transformation is rising, but the average annual growth rate of rural three-industry integration is significantly faster than that of agricultural green transformation. In terms of spatial differentiation, the integration level of the three rural industries is bounded by the planting animal husbandry boundary, and the level of the southern area is higher than that of the northern area. The agricultural green transformation is characterized by the spatial pattern of "high in the southeast and northeast, while low in the northwest". (2) In terms of the degree of adaptation, China's rural three-industry integration and agricultural green transformation adaptation show a good development trend of steady progress, roughly experience three stages of "growth-stability-shock", but the annual average is only 0.61, still in a relatively adaptive level. In terms of regional differences, the average fitness of China's eight comprehensive economic zones is ranked as "northern coastal zones>eastern coastal zones>southwest>middle reaches of the Yangtze River>middle reaches of Yellow River>southern coastal zones>northeast>northwest". (3) In terms of influencing factors, digital penetration, economic development level, scientific and technological innovation level, and higher education level have a significant positive impact on adaptation. On this basis, the paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions to promote the adaptive development of the two elements.

  • Land and Water Resources
    WANG Yixuan, DENG Xiaohong, FAN Huiwenqing, HAN Jiangzhe, LI Zongxing
    Arid Zone Research. 2025, 42(6): 1004-1020. https://doi.org/10.13866/j.azr.2025.06.05

    As the scarcity of global water intensifies, accurate assessments of water resource carrying capacity (WRCC) have become essential for sustainably managing regional water resources and combating the adverse effects of climate change. However, the water resources-ecology-society system is highly complex, involving multidimensional interactions anddynamic internal changes that cannot be fully captured by a single evaluation method. This paper reviews the application status and research progress of coupled-model methods for WRCC evaluation. A systematic comparative analysis reveals the strengths and limitations of the major evaluation methods—systems analysis, comprehensive evaluation, and machine learning—in WRCC evaluation. Particular attention is devoted to the challenges of these methods in arid regions. The dynamic feedback mechanisms, nonlinear modeling capabilities, data-driven characteristics, and applicabilities of different methods are analyzed through a horizontal comparison study. The review also analyzes the suitabilities and limitations of each method in arid regions and explores the feasibility of coupled models, providing new insights for resolving WRCC issues in these areas. Multimodel integration and data-driven optimization will enhance the generalizability and applicability of models in future, facilitating the transition of water resource management from static evaluation to dynamic simulation and precise prediction. These developments will offer scientific support for sustainable water resource utilization in arid regions and worldwide.

  • Urban and Regional Development
    WANG Shengyun, PAN Liuxin, WANG Zhenbo
    Acta Geographica Sinica. 2025, 80(4): 1009-1030. https://doi.org/10.11821/dlxb202504010

    Narrowing the gap of regional economic development and maintaining the balanced development path is the indispensable goals of China's regional coordinated development. In this study, the nighttime light image data and GDP statistical data are integrated to construct the Genuine Economic Index (GEI). Based on GEI, the Theil index, scale variance model, and the spatial filtering model are combined to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution of China's regional economic discrepancy from a multi-scale perspective. The results show that: (1) China's absolute regional economic differences expanded year by year, while the relative regional economic differences tended to shrink overall from 2000 to 2020. (2) Under different regional divisions, the scale variance of China's regional economy is manifested as municipal scale > county scale > provincial scale > regional scale, with the largest increase and highest contribution rate on the municipal scale. Narrowing inter-municipal gap is the key to decrease China's regional economic differences. (3) The contribution rate of spatial autocorrelation increased from 23.804% to 26.079% during 2000-2020. Regardless of spatial autocorrelation factors will lead to an overestimation of China's regional economic differences. (4) The impact of spatial autocorrelation on regional economic differences is scale sensitive, the smaller the spatial scale is, the stronger the sensitivity is. After spatial filtering, inter-county economic differences have been the largest part of China's regional economic differences. (5) Human capital, industrial structure, consumption scale and fiscal decentralization have a significant positive impact on China's Genuine Economic Index, however these factors show an obvious regional heterogeneity. This study could provide a multi-scale, refined and differentiated reference for the implementation of China's regional coordinated development strategy.

  • Regular Articles
    REN Kai
    JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES. 2025, 40(10): 2828-2846. https://doi.org/10.31497/zrzyxb.20251015

    Under the backdrop of ecological civilization and regional coordinated development, research on watershed settlements holds significant importance. Currently, the field of historical geography has established a localized knowledge framework for understanding the evolution of settlements in irrigation areas from the perspective of social transformation. This foundation supports the present study's value orientation, which centers on the symbiotic relationship among "water, society, people, and ecology" in irrigation area settlements conceptualized as water community. However, the evolution and spatial patterns of these settlements, rooted in the cultural core of water community, remain poorly understood. This study examines settlements of the Hetao Irrigation Area with a focus on water-related dynamics as the core research theme. It seeks to develop an explanatory model for the formation of irrigation area settlements based on the conceptual framework of water community, while analyzing their evolutionary patterns to achieve a scientific understanding of human-land relationships in these areas. The study posits that the essence of water community lies in the flexible and interactive organic structure formed by watershed irrigation settlements under specific ecological environments and productivity conditions, representing a universal developmental model for such settlements. The core value evolution trajectory of irrigation area settlements progresses from military-agricultural colonization→fragmented small-scale farming→garden-style large-scale agriculture→high-standard eco-economic agriculture across the entire irrigation area. Concurrently, the water management order of settlements shifts from the traditional "contextual production order" of irrigation-based farming to the modern "performance-based production order" of irrigated agriculture, driving the sustainable development of irrigation area settlements.

  • Exploration and Practice of Teaching Reform in Natural Resources Education
    LIU Ying-hui, YU Hao-tian, LI Qiang, JIANG Guang-hui, HASI Eerdun, JIN Jian-jun, SHI Pei-jun
    JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES. 2025, 40(8): 2009-2027. https://doi.org/10.31497/zrzyxb.20250801

    The 2018 restructuring of China's Ministry of Natural Resources initiated a New Era for natural resource discipline. Systematically advancing its positioning and knowledge framework has become imperative, integrating science, technology, and engineering to enhance conservation, green resource utilization, and sustainability. This study employs bibliometric analysis and literature review to systematically delineate the developmental trajectory, disciplinary positioning, knowledge system, and implementation pathways of natural resource studies. The findings reveal that natural resource discipline in China has advanced from its initial stage through systematic disciplinary development, evolving from multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches into a transdisciplinary field. It has now established a natural resource-centered knowledge system, underpinned by theoretical foundations in formation mechanisms, sustainability, efficiency, and property rights. The discipline integrates survey and monitoring, evaluation, simulation modeling, and policy analysis to address applications spanning territorial spatial planning, resource asset management, protected area systems, and engineering project development. The establishment of the Ministry of Natural Resources and clarification of its "Two Unifications" responsibilities, alongside reforms of natural resource asset property rights systems and unified territorial spatial planning policies, have invigorated the discipline. The field will now integrate practical needs to enhance disciplinary development, talent cultivation, and career pathways. As the knowledge system continues to be refined, the knowledge system of natural resource discipline in China will provide a robust theoretical foundation for the construction of a beautiful China and global sustainable development. Moreover, this discipline will continue to address societal demands for the utilization, protection, development, and management of natural resources by cultivating high-quality talent. In the future, professionals in natural resource discipline will integrate science, technology and engineering through transdisciplinary approaches to address national priorities directly. Leveraging artificial intelligence, big data, and blockchain technologies, they will advance Beautiful China initiatives and contribute to global sustainable development goals while tackling emerging resource challenges.

  • Nianxiu Qin, Feng Wen, Junneng Wang, Jiye He, Tong Jiang
    Tropical Geography. 2025, 45(4): 621-636. https://doi.org/10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.20240595

    Under the influence of climate change, drought poses a novel and urgent challenge to sustainable development in the humid regions of southern China. Therefore, it is essential to estimate future drought changes and population exposure comprehensively. Using CMIP6 climate models and population forecast data, we estimated drought variations and population exposure in the Xijiang River Basin of Guangxi from 2021 to 2100 under three scenarios of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). The findings are as follows: (1) By employing Taylor diagrams to evaluate the multi-model ensemble mean method (MME) of 18 CMIP6 climate models, we found that the method effectively simulated temperature and precipitation in the Xijiang River Basin, reducing the uncertainty associated with single-model simulations. Under all future scenarios, temperature and precipitation in the Xijiang River Basin are projected to increase, with effects of climate change becoming more pronounced in this region. (2) Using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), we observed a significant increasing trend in aridification in both historical and future periods. Significant differences and complex changes in the rate, occurrence time, frequency, intensity, and other drought characteristics were observed under various scenarios. Droughts are expected to be alleviated under low-emission scenarios but intensify comprehensively under high-emission scenarios. (3) The spatial variability of drought in the Xijiang River Basin will differ significantly under different scenarios. In low-emission scenarios, the intensity and extent of droughts nearly disappear in the long-term. Under medium-emission scenarios, the intensity and extent of droughts may increase. Drought events in this region are severe and worsen comprehensively, under high-emission scenarios, and the long-term impact will be extensive and serious. Drought events in this region are influenced by global climate change and are closely linked to the specific socioeconomic development path of the area. (4) Future, population exposure to drought will be highly correlated with different emission scenarios in the Xijiang River Basin. Under low-emission scenarios, the total population affected by droughts decreased. However, under medium-emission scenarios, the population exposed to each drought level will substantially increase in the medium- to long-term, and the spatial distribution will be more complex. In high-emission scenarios, although the exposure of populations may decrease in the short-term owing to extreme weather events, it will sharply increase in the medium- to long-term, especially with a sharp rise in exposure to severe droughts in the long-term. Climate change is the main factor affecting population exposure to drought; however, emission strategies are fundamental drivers, and population growth and structural changes cannot be ignored. Therefore, emission reduction measures play a key role in mitigating the risk of drought under the impact of global climate change. It is urgent to promote the transformation of low-carbon development models, strengthen regional coordination, and formulate adaptive strategies. This study provides scientific evidence for water resource management and drought response strategies in the Xijiang River Basin, and is of great significance for regional sustainable development.