流域水资源变化特征及其归因识别一直是水文研究的重要科学问题。本文以党河流域为研究区，采用线性倾向估计等方法分析了流域气象、下垫面和水文要素变化特征，基于Budyko水热耦合平衡方程量化了气候变化和人类活动对径流变化的贡献。结果表明：（1）流域内气温呈升高趋势，降水呈增加趋势，气候向暖湿化方向发展；（2）林地、草地、耕地、水域和建设用地面积增加，未利用地面积缩减；冰川退缩速率为3.86 km²·a^-1；多年平均最大冻结深度平均递减速率为1.14 cm·a^-1；（3）党河径流年际递增速率为0.21亿m³/10a，年内分配为“双峰型”，降水和气温对径流年内变化贡献分别为57.2%和42.8%，气候变化和人类活动对径流变化贡献分别为59.46%和40.54%。

The characteristics of watershed water resources changes and their attribution identification have been important scientific problems in hydrological research. we analyzed the characteristics of meteorological， subsurface and hydrological elements changes using methods such as linear propensity estimation， and quantified the contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff changes based on based on Budyko hypothesis in Danghe River basin. The results show that the temperature and precipitation showed an increasing trend， and the climate developed toward the direction of warming and humidification. The area of forestland， grassland， arable land， water area and construction land increased while the area of unused land decreased； the glacier retreat rate was -3.86 km²·yr^-1； the average decrease rate of the annual average maximum freezing depth was -1.14 cm·yr^-1. The interannual increasing rate of runoff was 0.21×10⁸ m³/10yr， and the intra-annual distribution of runoff depicted a double-peak effect， the contributions of precipitation and temperature to the annual variation of runoff were 57.2% and 42.8%， respectively， and the contributions of climate change and human activities to the annual variation of runoff were 59.46% and 40.54%， respectively. The results of the study can provide a reference for the scientific management and optimal allocation of water resources in Danghe River basin.