Naveed AHMED, WANG Gen-xu, Adeyeri OLUWAFEMI, Sarfraz MUNIR, HU Zhao-yong, Aamir SHAKOOR, Muhammad Ali IMRAN
2020, 17(03): 556-571.
The understanding of temperature trends in high elevation mountain areas is an integral part of climate change research and it is critical for assessing the impacts of climate change on water resources including glacier melt, degradation of soils, and active layer thickness. In this study, climate changes were analyzed based on trends in air temperature variables(T_(max), T_(min), T_(mean)), and Diurnal Temperature Range(DTR) as well as elevation-dependent warming at annual and seasonal scales in the Headwaters of Yangtze River(HWYZ), Qinghai Tibetan Plateau. The Base Period(1965-2014) was split into two subperiods; Period-Ⅰ(1965-1989) and Period-Ⅱ(1990-2014) and the analysis was constrained over two subbasins; Zhimenda and Tuotuohe. Increasing trends were found in absolute changes in temperature variables during Period-Ⅱ as compared to Period-Ⅰ.T_(max), T_(min), and T_(mean) had significant increasing trends for both sub-basins. The highest significant trends in annual time scale were observed in T_(min)(1.15℃ decade~(-1)) in Tuotuohe and 0.98℃ decade~(-1) in Zhimenda sub-basins. In Period-Ⅱ, only the winter season had the highest magnitudes of T_(max) and T_(min)0.58℃ decade~(-1) and 1.26℃ decade~(-1) in Tuotuohe subbasin, respectively. Elevation dependent warming analysis revealed that T_(max), T_(min) and T_(mean) trend magnitudes increase with the increase of elevations in the middle reaches(4000 m to 4400 m) of the HWYZ during Period-Ⅱ annually. The increasing trend magnitude during Period-Ⅱ, for T_(max), is 1.77, 0.92, and 1.31℃ decade~(-1), for T_(min) 1.20, 1.32 and 1.59℃ decade~(-1),for T_(mean) 1.51, 1.10 and 1.51℃ decade~(-1) at elevations of4066 m, 4175 m and 4415 m respectively in the winter season. T_(mean) increases during the spring season for> 3681 m elevations during Period-Ⅱ, with no particular relation with elevation dependency for other variables. During the summer season in Period Ⅱ, T_(max), T_(min), T_(mean) increases with the increase of elevations(3681 m to 4415 m) in the middle reaches of HWYZ. Elevation dependent warming(EDW), the study concluded that magnitudes of T_(min) are increasing significantly after the 1990s as compared to T_(max) in the HWYZ. It is concluded that the climate of the HWYZ is getting warmer in both sub-basins and the rate of warming was more evident after the 1990s. The outcomes of the study provide an essential insight into climate change in the region and would be a primary index to select and design research scenarios to explore the impacts of climate change on water resources.
