Spatiotemporal dynamic and drivers of ecological environmental quality on the Chinese Loess Plateau: Insights from kRSEI model and climate-human interaction analysis
Received date: 2025-02-23
Revised date: 2025-06-08
Accepted date: 2025-06-20
Online published: 2025-08-12
The Loess Plateau (LP), one of the most ecologically fragile regions in China, is affected by severe soil erosion and environmental degradation. Despite large-scale ecological restoration efforts made by Chinese government in recent years, the region continues to face significant ecological challenges due to the combined impact of climate change and human activities. In this context, we developed a kernal Remote Sensing Ecological Index (kRSEI) using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform to analyze the spatiotemporal patterns and trends in ecological environmental quality (EEQ) across the LP from 2000 to 2022 and project future trajectories. Then, we applied partial correlation analysis and multivariate regression residual analysis to further quantify the relative contributions of climate change and human activities to EEQ. During the study period, the kRSEI values exhibited significant spatial heterogeneity, with a stepwise degradation pattern in the southeast to northwest across the LP. The maximum (0.51) and minimum (0.46) values of the kRSEI were observed in 2007 and 2021, respectively. Trend analyses revealed a decline in EEQ across the LP. Hurst exponent analysis predicted a trend of weak anti-persistent development in most of the plateau areas in the future. A positive correlation was identified between kRSEI and precipitation, particularly in the central and western regions; although, improvements were limited by a precipitation threshold of 837.66 mm/a. A moderate increase in temperature was shown to potentially benefit the ecological environment within a certain range; however, temperature of -1.00°C-7.95°C often had a negative impact on the ecosystem. Climate change and human activities jointly influenced 65.78% of LP area on EEQ, primarily having a negative impact. In terms of contribution, human activities played a dominant role in driving changes in EEQ across the plateau. These findings provide crucial insights for accurately assessing the ecological state of the LP and suggest the design of future restoration strategies.
XI Ruiyun , PEI Tingting , CHEN Ying , XIE Baopeng , HOU Li , WANG Wen . Spatiotemporal dynamic and drivers of ecological environmental quality on the Chinese Loess Plateau: Insights from kRSEI model and climate-human interaction analysis[J]. Journal of Arid Land, 2025 , 17(7) : 958 -978 . DOI: 10.1007/s40333-025-0104-9
Fig. 1 Elevation (a) and land cover of the Loess Plateau (LP). Note that the figures of the LP region were sourced from the Global Change Research Data Publishing & Repository (https://www.geodoi.ac.cn/WebCn/doi.aspx?Id=199), and the boundary has not been modified. |
Table 1 Change category of ecological environmental quality (EEQ) variation based on Sen's slope analysis and Mann-Kendall (MK) test |
Slope value | Z value | Change category | Trend characteristic |
---|---|---|---|
Slope>0.0000 | 2.58<Z | 4 | Extremely significant increase |
1.96<Z≤2.58 | 3 | Significant increase | |
1.65<Z≤1.96 | 2 | Slight increase | |
Z≤1.65 | 1 | No significant increase | |
Slope=0.0000 | - | 0 | No change |
Slope<0.0000 | Z≤1.65 | -1 | No significant decrease |
1.65<Z≤1.96 | -2 | Slight decrease | |
1.96<Z≤2.58 | -3 | Significant decrease | |
2.58<Z | -4 | Extremely significant decrease |
Note:The Z value is a standardized test statistic in the MK test, which is used to determine the statistical significance of a time series trend. "-", no value. |
Table 2 Classification of future trends in EEQ based on Hurst exponent analysis |
Slope value | Hurst index (H) | Future trend category | Trend characteristic |
---|---|---|---|
Slope< -0.0005 | 0.65<H<1.00 | 1 | Strong sustained degradation |
Slope< -0.0005 | 0.50<H<0.65 | 2 | Weak sustained degradation |
Slope≥0.0005 | 0.00<H<0.35 | 3 | Reversed strong sustained improvement |
Slope≥0.0005 | 0.35<H<0.50 | 4 | Reversed weak sustained improvement |
Slope< -0.0005 | 0.35<H<0.50 | 5 | Reversed weak sustained degradation |
Slope< -0.0005 | 0.00<H<0.35 | 6 | Reversed strong sustained degradation |
Slope≥0.0005 | 0.50<H<0.65 | 7 | Weak sustained improvement |
Slope≥0.0005 | 0.65<H<1.00 | 8 | Strong sustained improvement |
-0.0005≤Slope<0.0005 | - | 9 | No change |
Note: When -0.0005≤Slope<0.0005, the trend of the time series is statistically insignificant (approaching a stationary state). Under this condition, the long-term memory (sustained or reversed weak sustained) analyzed by the Hurst exponent may lose statistical significance due to noise dominance, and thus no H value is assigned. "-", no value. |
Table 3 Assessment criteria for identifying the drivers of kernel Remote Sensing Ecological Index (kRSEI) variation and calculation of contribution rate |
Slope(kRSEIobs) | Driver | Criteria for determining driver | Contribution rate | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Slope(kRSEICC) | Slope(kRSEIHA) | Climate change | Human activities | ||
>0.0000 | Climate change and human activities | >0.0000 | >0.0000 | $\frac{\text { Slpoe }\left(\mathrm{kRSEI}_{\mathrm{CC}}\right)}{\text { Slpoe }\left(\mathrm{kRSEI}_{\text {obs }}\right)} \times 100 \%$ | $\frac{\text { Slpoe }\left(\text { kRSEI }_{\text {HA }}\right)}{\text { Slpoe }\left(\text { kRSEI }_{\text {obs }}\right)} \times 100 \%$ |
Climate change | >0.0000 | <0.0000 | 100% | 0% | |
Human activities | <0.0000 | >0.0000 | 0% | 100% | |
<0.0000 | Climate change and human activities | <0.0000 | <0.0000 | $\frac{\text { Slpoe }\left(\mathrm{kRSEI}_{\mathrm{CC}}\right)}{\text { Slpoe }\left(\mathrm{kRSEI}_{\text {obs }}\right)} \times 100 \%$ | $\frac{\text { Slpoe }\left(\mathrm{kRSEI}_{\mathrm{HA}}\right)}{\text { Slpoe }\left(\mathrm{kRSEI}_{\text {obs }}\right)} \times 100 \%$ |
Climate change | <0.0000 | >0.0000 | 100% | 0% | |
Human activities | >0.0000 | <0.0000 | 0% | 100% |
Note: Slope(kRSEIobs) is the changing trend of the observed kRSEI values; Slope(kRSEICC) is the changing trend of the predicted kRSEI values, denoting the trends in kRSEI resulting from climate change; and Slope(kRSEIHA) is the changing trend of the residual kRSEI values, reflecting the trends in kRSEI resulting from human activities. |
Fig. 2 Scatterplot of kernal Remote Sensing Ecological Index (kRSEI) with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI; a), Land Surface Temperature (LST; b), Wetness Index (WI; c), and Normalized Difference Built-up Soil Index (NDBSI; d) |
Fig. 3 Spatial distribution of ecological environmental quality (EEQ) levels on the LP from 2000 to 2022. (a), 2000; (b), 2005; (c), 2010; (d), 2015; (e), 2020; (f), 2022. |
Fig. 4 Proportion of area with different EEQ levels on the LP (a) and linear fit of the annual mean kRSEI values from 2000 to 2022 (b) |
Fig. 5 Spatial distribution of slope values (a) and EEQ change categories (b) on the LP from 2000 to 2022 |
Table 4 Results of MK test showing the trends in EEQ on the LP from 2000 to 2022 and corresponding areas |
Change category | Trend characteristic | Area proportion (%) |
---|---|---|
4 | Extremely significant increase | 5.62 |
3 | Significant increase | 4.70 |
2 | Slight increase | 2.87 |
1 | No significant increase | 19.54 |
0 | No change | 1.04 |
-1 | No significant decrease | 30.28 |
-2 | Slight decrease | 6.46 |
-3 | Significant decrease | 12.03 |
-4 | Extremely significant decrease | 17.46 |
Fig. 6 Spatial distribution of Hurst index (H) values (a) and future trends in EEQ (b) on the LP |
Table 5 Future trends in EEQ and corresponding areas on the LP |
Future trend category | Trend characteristic | Area proportion (%) |
---|---|---|
1 | Strong sustained degradation | 5.63 |
2 | Weak sustained degradation | 6.39 |
3 | Reversed strong sustained improvement | 1.95 |
4 | Reversed weak sustained improvement | 1.99 |
5 | Reversed weak sustained degradation | 6.90 |
6 | Reversed strong sustained degradation | 5.32 |
7 | Weak sustained improvement | 1.95 |
8 | Strong sustained improvement | 2.12 |
9 | No change | 0.01 |
Fig. 7 Correlation of kRSEI with precipitation (a) and temperature (b) |
Fig. 8 Spatial distribution of significant correlation of kRSEI with precipitation (a) and temperature (b) |
Fig. 9 Threshold effect of precipitation (a) and temperature (b) on kRSEI on the LP from 2000 to 2022, and three-dimensional response surface of kRSEI to temperature and precipitation on the LP in 2000 (c) and 2022 (d). The blue curve in Figure 9a1 and b1 represents the fitted response. Figure 9a2 and b2 shows the marginal effect of precipitation and temperature on kRSEI, respectively. The dkRSEI/dprecipitation and dkRSEI/dtemperature are first derivatives, reflecting the rate of variation. |
Fig. 10 Impact of climate change (CC) and human activities (HA) on kRSEI variation across the LP from 2000 to 2022. (a), spatial distribution of the co-contribution of CC and HA to kRSEI variation; (b and c), spatial distribution of the contributions of CC and HA to kRSEI variation, respectively; (d), proportional contributions of CC and HA to kRSEI variation across different land use types. Slope>0.0000 represents positive effect on kRSEI, and slope<0.0000 represents negative effect on kRSEI. |
Fig. 11 Spatial distribution of the six types of ecological zones on the LP determined based on the contributions of climate change and human activities to kRSEI variation. (a), synergistic improvement zone; (b), climate-advantage zone; (c), human-driven zone; (d), comprehensive degradation zone; (e), climate-sensitive zone; (f), human disturbance zone. |
[1] |
|
[2] |
|
[3] |
|
[4] |
|
[5] |
|
[6] |
|
[7] |
|
[8] |
|
[9] |
|
[10] |
|
[11] |
|
[12] |
|
[13] |
|
[14] |
|
[15] |
|
[16] |
|
[17] |
|
[18] |
IPCC
|
[19] |
|
[20] |
|
[21] |
|
[22] |
|
[23] |
|
[24] |
|
[25] |
|
[26] |
|
[27] |
|
[28] |
|
[29] |
|
[30] |
|
[31] |
|
[32] |
|
[33] |
|
[34] |
|
[35] |
|
[36] |
|
[37] |
|
[38] |
|
[39] |
|
[40] |
|
[41] |
|
[42] |
|
[43] |
|
[44] |
|
[45] |
|
[46] |
|
[47] |
|
[48] |
|
[49] |
|
[50] |
|
[51] |
|
[52] |
|
[53] |
|
[54] |
|
[55] |
|
[56] |
|
[57] |
|
[58] |
|
[59] |
|
[60] |
|
[61] |
|
[62] |
|
[63] |
|
[64] |
|
[65] |
|
/
〈 |
|
〉 |