XIAO Tieqiao, XU Yunqiang, ZHANG Shaojie, GAN Shenqi
The acute man-land conflict in mountainous counties has made optimizing land use and balancing the relationship among farmland conservation,economic development,and ecological restoration a central issue today.Taking Taihu County in Anqing City,Anhui Province as a case study,this research first constructs the Sustainable Development Index(ISDI)based on a multidimensional evaluation system and employs the PLUS model for multi-scenario simulation;it then analyzes the land change characteristics from 2000 to 2020 and the forecast period using a transition matrix;finally,it integrates land use change patterns constrained by topography with multidimensional,multi-scenario evaluations to comprehensively analyze multi-scenario development suitability and reveal the impacts of land use changes on sustainable development. Results indicate that:1)From 2000 to 2020,forest land constituted the primary land use type in Taihu County. The significant expansion of construction land resulted from encroachment on farmland.Under mountainous terrain constraints,ecological land was concentrated in the central and western mountainous areas,while construction land and farmland competed for the gently sloping,high-quality land resources in the southeast. 2)Under multi-scenario simulations,the 2030 land use patterns and multidimensional development suitability varied significantly.Under the natural development scenario,substantial expansion of construction land squeezed the space of farmland and water bodies,resulting in the lowest ISDI ;Under the farmland protection scenario, growth in both farmland and construction land led to issues such as forest land reduction,ecological space fragmentation,and water resource pressure,with ISDI slightly increasing compared to the natural development scenario.Under the ecological protection scenario,expansion of all land categories was effectively controlled, achieving the highest ISDI .3)Land use in Taihu County is significantly influenced by topography.The ecological protection pathway effectively balances food security,economic development,and ecological security,representing a scientific pathway for Taihu County and similar regions to achieve sustainable development.