随着全球变暖的加剧，西藏地区冰湖的规模不断扩大，由此可能会发生冰湖溃决自然灾害。本文基于GIS空间分析和参数最优地理探测器方法，分析了西藏地区1990年至2015年间冰湖时空变化以及各环境因子：冰湖海拔、年总降水、年平均温度、年相对湿度、冰川面积变化、GDP、人口密度的影响程度。结果表明：（1）25年间冰湖总数量和总面积的增长率分别为2.57%、6.32%，各个面积大小的冰湖在不同的海拔都有增长，增长最多的是小型冰湖（面积小于0.1 km²），西藏冰湖增长方向性显著，数量分布和面积分布离散程度高，基本分布在西藏东部和南部地区。（2）通过Pearson相关分析，西藏冰湖变化主要受该地区冰川面积变化以及降水量大小影响。（3）地理探测器中，冰川面积变化对冰湖变化影响强度最高，q值为0.5006；交互作用探测中，温度因子与冰川面积变化因子交互作用后对冰湖变化影响解释力最强，且呈非线性增强关系，除温度因子以外，冰湖变化受各因子交互作用影响强度高。

With the intensification of global warming， glaciers at high altitudes in Asia are in an overall state of accelerated melting， the glacial lakes， which are mainly recharged by glacier meltwater， are undergoing rapid changes. As one of the important water resources in Tibet， glacial lakes play an important role in the daily life of the local people. The scale of glacial lakes in Tibet has been expanding， which may lead to natural disasters such as glacial lake outburst. Tibet is close to the Himalayas， and most of the GLOF events in Tibet originated in the glacial lakes of the Himalayan region. The current research on the factors affecting glacial lake changes basically stays on the nature of glacial lakes， using more qualitative methods.This paper is based on GIS spatial analysis， Pearson correlation analysis and Optimal Parameters-Based Geographical Detector method. All the glacial lakes with an area larger than 0.01 km² in Tibet were counted using the open-source data of the Third Pole Glacial Lake. This study mainly analyzed the changes in the number and scale of glacial lakes in Tibet from 1990 to 2015， as well as the spatial distribution trend of glacial lakes in the region. Pearson correlation analysis and Parameters-Based Geographical Detector were used to examine the influence of seven selected environmental factors： glacial lake altitude， annual total precipitation， annual average temperature， annual relative humidity， glacier area change， GDP， and population density. The results showed that：（1） The total number of glacial lakes in Tibet increased by 303， an increase of about 2.57%； the total area of glacial lakes in Tibet increased by 59.90 km²， an increase of about 6.32%. The glacial lakes of different sizes increased significantly at different altitudes， most of which were small glacial lakes （area less than 0.1 km²）， and distributed between 3 500~6 000 m. The growth direction of glacial lakes in Tibet in the past 25 years was significant， and the quantity and area distribution were highly dispersed. In 1990 and 2015， the glacial lakes in Tibet were basically distributed in the eastern and southern parts of Tibet， with the center shifting to the west. The influence of longitude was greater than that of latitude， and the growth of quantity and area of glacial lakes was slightly from southeast Tibet to southwest Tibet.（2） In Pearson correlation analysis， the glacial lake change was most correlated with the glacier area change factor， followed by the total precipitation factor， both of which showed moderate positive correlation. Then the relative humidity factor and the glacial lake altitude factor showed weak positive correlation， while the population density factor showed weak negative correlation. Finally， the glacial lake change was not correlated with the average temperature factor and GDP factor. The glacial lake change in Tibet was mainly affected by the change of glacier area and precipitation in the region. The increase of glacier area and precipitation increased， and the glacial lake expansion was more significant.（3） Parameters-Based Geographical Detector method was used to detect the influencing factors of glacial lake change in Tibet. Among them， the change of glacier area had the highest influence intensity on glacial lake change， with a value of 0.5006. The second was the annual total precipitation， with a value of 0.3106. The annual average temperature had the lowest influence intensity on glacial lake change， with a value of 0.1601. From the perspective of single factor， the change of glacier area and precipitation factor had a high influence on glacial lake change in this region. When the temperature factor and the change of glacier area interacted， they had a severe influence on glacial lake change， and the relationship was nonlinear enhancement， indicating that the two factors would affect the change of glacial lake in Tibet under the common drive. However， the influence of human factors on glacial lake change in Tibet was not high， and the dominant factors were climate change and glacier area change. It is necessary to focus on the impact of climate change and glacier retreat on glacial lake in the region.This study provides new ideas and references for exploring the driving mechanism of glacial lake changes， and provides basic information and data support for the potential risk assessment and risk analysis of GLOF in Tibet.