冰冻圈与全球变化

地球工程国际研究发展态势及现状

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  • 1.中国科学院 西北生态环境资源研究院 冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室,甘肃 兰州 730000
    2.中国科学院大学,北京 100049
    3.郑州 航空工业管理学院 信息管理学院,河南 郑州 450046
    4.新疆交通规划勘察设计研究院有限公司,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830006
谢宜达,博士研究生,主要从事冰川保护研究. E-mail: ydxie@lzb.ac.cn

网络出版日期: 2024-06-24

基金资助

甘肃省科技计划项目(23ZDFA017)

Development trend and status of international research in geoengineering: a case study of glacier protection

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  • 1.State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
    2.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    3.School of Information Science, Zhengzhou University of Aeronautics, Zhengzhou 450046, China
    4.Xinjiang Transportation Planning Surveying and Design Institute, Urumqi 830006, China

Online published: 2024-06-24

摘要

地球工程作为应对气候变化的潜在备选方案,旨在控制全球变暖速率,抵消人为因素对气候变化的影响。本文基于文献计量学,从发文量、国际合作、高频词等角度系统分析了国际地球工程领域科技前沿的发展态势。近年来,地球工程领域的科学研究整体呈增长趋势,中美英等国在该领域处于世界领先地位,具有较强的科研水平。现阶段的地球工程研究主要停留在模型模拟及评估阶段,大部分研究缺乏实测和分析数据,且地球工程方法技术可能对自然环境和社会存在威胁。太阳辐射管理技术会对全球和区域气候模式存在潜在威胁,而二氧化碳移除技术的问题主要是其可能的意外环境后果,以及对地球气候系统长期影响的不确定性。此外,冰川地球工程正逐渐成为冰冻圈学科和全球变化领域新兴的研究方向,已借助地球工程原理,在极地冰盖和少数山地冰川开展应用研究,但大多是数值模拟和方案设计,少数进行了实地试验。在未来,地球工程研究重点依赖于针对实验工作的资金技术支持,以期改进建模和为技术分析提供实测和理论基础数据,促使地球工程脱离现有的模型模拟阶段,开展大规模商业化示范。地球工程发展需要伦理道德规范,结合我国能源转型战略,有可能基于国际跨学科合作开发和部署以保护环境和改善人类福祉。

本文引用格式

谢宜达, 孙平安然, 王飞腾, 赵鹏 . 地球工程国际研究发展态势及现状[J]. 冰川冻土, 2024 , 46(1) : 52 -64 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2024.0005

Abstract

Geoengineering, as a potential avenue for tackling climate change, seeks to address global climate change scenarios, manage the pace of global warming, and counteract human-induced impacts on the climate. This paper, utilizing bibliometrics, systematically dissects the trajectory of international research in the realm of geoengineering, shedding light on scientific and technological frontiers through metrics such as publication numbers, global collaboration, and frequently employed terms. In recent years, the overall global scientific research in the field of geoengineering has shown a growing trend, and countries such as China, the United States of America and the United Kingdom are in a world-leading position in this field, with strong scientific research level. Geoengineering research predominantly resides in the realm of model simulation and assessment at this juncture. A significant portion of the research lacks tangible, analyzed data, and some geoengineering methods and technologies probably pose potential threats to the natural environment and society. Solar radiation management technologies stand out as potentially menacing to global and regional climate patterns, while carbon dioxide removal technologies are marked by unintended environmental consequences and uncertainty regarding their long-term impacts on the Earth’s climate system. Furthermore, glacier geoengineering is emerging as a focal point in the cryosphere discipline and the broader field of global change. Applied research in this domain has commenced in polar ice caps and select mountain glaciers, guided by geoengineering principles. However, the majority of efforts involve numerical simulations and scenario design, with only a handful of field experiments conducted. Looking ahead, the trajectory of geoengineering research will pivot towards securing financial and technical support for experimental endeavors. This shift aims to enhance modeling capabilities and furnish empirical and theoretical foundational data for technical analyses. This evolution is expected to facilitate the transition of geoengineering from its current phase of model simulation to large-scale commercial demonstration. The development of geoengineering requires ethical and moral guidance, combined with energy transformation strategy in China, and may be based on international cross-disciplinary cooperation development and deployment to help protect the environment and improve human well-being.

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