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China Population, Resources and Environment >

2026 , Vol. 36 >Issue 3: 159 - 169

DOI: https://doi.org/10.12062/cpre.20251015

Impact of rural e-commerce on county-level grain production: “crowding in” or “crowding out”

  • DENG Jinqian ,
  • LI Manjun
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  • School of Economics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou Gansu 730000, China

Received date: 2025-05-05

  Revised date: 2025-10-27

  Online published: 2026-06-05

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Abstract

Food security is of paramount national importance. In the context of accelerating global digital technology penetration and profound transformations in consumption patterns, the development of rural e-commerce is a crucial measure for transforming agricultur-al development approaches and innovating rural business models. Revealing whether rural e-commerce “crowds in” or “crowds out” county-level grain production is of significant importance when considering the assurance of China's food self-sufficiency. This study utilized the “Taobao Village” initiative—a collaborative endeavor between Alibaba Group's Taobao e-commerce platform and local gov-ernments—to construct county-level panel data based on the number of Taobao Villages. The study systematically examined the impact of rural e-commerce on county-level grain production and its underlying mechanisms. The findings revealed the following: ① It is evi-dent that rural e-commerce development exerted a significant crowding-out effect on country-level grain production. This conclusion re-mained robust after endogeneity treatment and multiple robustness tests. ② The crowding-out effect of rural e-commerce development on county-level grain production demonstrated significant heterogeneity due to differences in agricultural functional zones, county ad-ministrative attributes, and geographic locations. The crowding-out effect was observed in production-consumption balanced areas and major grain-consuming regions, county-level cities and municipal districts, and western regions. ③ The crowding-out effect of rural e-commerce on county-level grain production was primarily achieved through the non-agricultural shift of the rural labor employment structure and the non-grain shift of the cultivated land planting structure. ④ Major grain-producing county reward policies could effec-tively correct the crowding-out effect of rural e-commerce development on county-level grain production, providing empirical evidence for better stabilizing grain production and safeguarding national food security in the digital economy era. Based on this, to achieve the objective of securing China's food self-sufficiency in the digital intelligence era, it is necessary to strengthen the integration of e-com-merce technology, platforms, and business models with county-level grain production; establish an “e-commerce + grain” collaborative development mechanism; increase subsidies for major grain-producing counties; and ensure that grain planting areas remain stable at safe levels.

Key words： rural e-commerce; food security; non-agricultural shift of employment structure; non-grain shift of planting structure

Cite this article

DENG Jinqian , LI Manjun . Impact of rural e-commerce on county-level grain production: “crowding in” or “crowding out”[J]. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2026 , 36(3) : 159 -169 . DOI: 10.12062/cpre.20251015

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