Climate change is one of the major global challenges of the 21^st century, with wide-ranging impacts on the environment, socioeconomic development, and public health. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2023), the global average temperature has risen by about 1.10°C relative to pre-industrial levels, leading to more frequent extreme weather events and the change of hydrological regime. Central Asia—comprising Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan—is highly vulnerable to climate change. Between 2010 and 2020, the region experienced a rise in the annual average temperature of approximately 0.30°C-0.50°C, along with shifts in precipitation patterns that have negatively affected water availability and agricultural productivity (United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE), 2021). These changes heighten the risks of land degradation, biodiversity loss, and social vulnerability. In response, regional governments and international partners are strengthening efforts to promote sustainable development and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Renewable energy plays a central role in global mitigation strategies. According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA, 2024), large-scale deployment of renewable energy technologies could reduce carbon monoxide (CO) emissions from the energy sector by up to 70.0%.

Central Asia possesses substantial renewable energy resources. Annual average solar radiation ranges from 1.50×10³ to 2.20×10³ kW•h/m², comparable to or higher than that of many European countries (Murodbek et al., 2022). Key wind corridors exhibit average speeds of 5-7 m/s, favorable for commercial wind power development. Mountainous regions of Central Asia also have water resources suitable for small- and medium-scale hydropower plants (World Bank, 2023a). However, the use of green energy is constrained by outdated energy infrastructure, limited investment, and legal and technical barriers (Asian Development Bank (ADB), 2023a). Table 1 shows renewable energy potential in Central Asia.

During 1990-2024, the annual average temperature showed a steady increase of approximately 0.03°C/a in Central Asia (Fig. 1). This trend aligns with global and regional warming patterns and reflects the influence of greenhouse gas accumulation and shifts in regional atmospheric circulation, leading to a gradual intensification of heat stress. The annual average precipitation exhibited significant interannual variation. These fluctuations highlighted the sensitivity of the region’s hydrological cycle to natural climate change and anthropogenic factors. The data revealed two concurrent climatic trends in Central Asia: persistent warming and unstable but overall slowly increasing precipitation. These changes have direct impacts on water availability, agricultural productivity, and ecosystem resilience, underscoring the need for adaptive strategies in energy planning, water management, and food security (Su et al., 2024; World Meteorological Organization, 2025a).

Finally, this study aims to achieving the following objectives: (1) assessing renewable energy potential and utilization; (2) analyzing the impact of renewable energy on emission reduction; (3) identifying key barriers and opportunities of the use of renewable energy; and (4) proposing recommendations for sustainable energy development in Central Asia.

Central Asia’s arid and semi-arid ecosystems are highly vulnerable to climate change. Water resources, which are largely dependent on glacier melt and mountain precipitation, are facing significant threats. Therefore, understanding these dynamics is critical for regional socioeconomic stability and ecological sustainability. A substantial literature has thus focused on projecting future hydrological regimes under climate change.

Recent modeling studies provide insights into long-term trends of climate change. For example, Hou et al. (2025) projected that, despite declining snowmelt, the total discharge in the Amu Darya Basin will increase until mid-century because of intensifying glacier melt and increasing precipitation, and that streamflow seasonality and extremes will shift. Early work in Tianshan Mountains identified a mid-century ‘peak water’ followed by decline (Sorg et al., 2012), and a pattern was later confirmed in the Amu Darya and Syr Darya basins (Hagg et al., 2007) and has also been verified in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) scenarios in Tarim Basin (Guo et al., 2023) and Tianshan Mountains (Chen et al., 2017). At continental scale, the role of glacier melting in buffering droughts has also been emphasized (Pritchard, 2019). While these models are valuable for forecasting, many rely on coarse-resolution climate influencing factors that may not fully capture complex mountainous processes characteristics.

A parallel body of research (Liu et al., 2019; Qiao et al., 2019; Che et al., 2021) has used satellite observations to document hydrological and ecological responses to climate change in Central Asia. Some studies (Yang et al., 2020; Du et al., 2023; Deroin, 2025) have mapped glacier retreat and variations in lake surface area of Central Asia, providing essential evidence of ongoing environmental transformations. Building on these assessments, recent work has begun to elucidate the coupled behavior of landscape components. For example, studies by Abdouli et al. (2017), Aghahosseini et al. (2020), Albaker et al. (2023), and Su et al. (2025) showed strong synchronization between lake extent and surrounding vegetation, driven primarily by precipitation dynamics. These findings underscore the intrinsic linkage between hydrological and ecological systems in arid regions, with their interactions modulated by topography, groundwater connectivity, and other local factors (Alharthi et al., 2021; Ali and Bhuiyan, 2022; Al-Ismail et al., 2023; Al-Zubairi et al., 2025). However, despite their strengths in diagnosing past and present land-surface interactions, most of these studies (Humphrey et al., 2021; Xia et al., 2023) do not incorporate observed feedback mechanisms into forward-looking hydrological model projections.

This disconnect highlights a critical gap in the current research landscape. There is an urgent need to reconcile large-scale, forward-looking hydrological projections with the fine-scale, observation-based understanding of coupled land-water-atmosphere processes. In particular, it remains unclear how the complex interactions among surface water body, terrestrial ecosystem, and atmosphere identified by Su et al. (2024) will influence or be influenced by the broader hydrological changes projected in models such as those developed by Hou et al. (2025).

The present study evaluates the viability of Central Asia’s green energy potential in the context of rapidly evolving water resources. Therefore, this study integrated multi-source satellite observations with regional climate model outputs to identify future water-stress hotspots and assess their impacts on the long-term sustainability of proposed solar, wind, and hydropower developments. Through this approach, this study aims to provide a more holistic understanding of regional water and energy security and to inform prioritization and adaptation strategies that support a resilient renewable energy transition.

This study used a mixed methodology that combines statistical analysis, comparative case study, and secondary literature to assess the role of renewable energy development under climate change mitigation in Central Asia.

Central Asia has significant potential for developing various types of renewable energy sources, including solar energy, wind energy, hydropower, as well as biomass and bioenergy.

This study demonstrated that Central Asia has substantial technical potential for diverse renewable energy sources. Solar energy, wind energy, hydropower, as well as biomass and bioenergy have contributed to reducing greenhouse gas emission and improving local environmental quality. These results highlight both the opportunities and systemic constraints that influence the pace and scale of renewable energy transition in five Central Asia countries including Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan.

The increases of renewable energy utilization and the reduction of emissions are significant for three interrelated reasons. First, even a modest increase in renewable energy can observably reduce emissions in systems where a large percentage of electricity still comes from fossil fuels. This is explained by the generation displacement principle: renewable energy reduces the operating hours of fossil fuel generators during overlapping demand periods, thereby lowering net CO₂ emissions. The macro-level reductions (Tables 1 and 2) reflect both installed capacity and effective utilization, including capacity factors and grid integration (Kristensen et al., 2023). Second, country heterogeneity demonstrates that resource endowment alone does not guarantee climate change mitigation. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan maintain high percentages of renewable energy from hydropower, while Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan are still transitioning to solar and wind energies. Institutional frameworks, financing mechanisms, and grid readiness ultimately determine whether renewable energy mitigation potential is realized in actual mitigation. As such, policy responses must be tailored: auctions and standardized power purchase agreements may be the most effective in fossil-fuel-dominant systems, while hydro-dominated systems may require rehabilitation programs and strengthened environmental safeguards (IEA, 2024a,b). Third, co-benefits, such as the improvement of air quality, rural electrification, and job creation, strengthen the socio-political case for renewable energy. These non-carbon benefits can accelerate political support and attract financing beyond traditional carbon accounting. Future research should explicitly quantify these co-benefits to enhance cost-benefit and distributive impact assessments.

The primary technical mechanism for reducing emissions is generation displacement. The magnitude of avoided emissions depends on three technical and systemic factors: (i) the marginal emission factor of the displaced fossil unit(s); (ii) the capacity factor and temporal generation profile of renewable installation; and (iii) the extent of curtailment and grid constraints. In hydro-dominated systems, managing variability may depend more on hydro scheduling than on fossil-fired backup, which affects the emission outcome of added renewable energy. These mechanisms should be explicitly modeled when translating capacity additions into avoided emissions, as using average national emission factors without sensitivity testing can lead to inaccurate estimations (Prindle, 2009; Mehta, 2023; International Hydropower Association, 2024).

This study identifies key systemic barriers in the use of renewable energy: outdated infrastructure, fragmented regulatory frameworks, limited investment, and shortages of technical expertise. Operational constraints, such as grid rigidity, limited interconnection capacity, and the lack of transparent, bankable procurement procedures, explain why Central Asian’s renewable energy potential remains underexploited. Weak grid codes and uncertain tariff regimes further amplify perceived investment risks.

A coherent policy package is essential to accelerate the transition and maximize climate benefits. Transparent competitive procurement (auctions), standardized power purchase agreements, and guaranteed off-takers can reduce investors’ risk. Investments in transmission, cross-border interconnections, demand-side management, and storage can reduce curtailment and facilitate higher percentages of variable renewable energy. Blended finance, guarantees, and concessional loans for the first batch of projects in underserved regions can catalyze private capital. Workforce training, university-industry partnerships, and pilot projects for hybrid systems (e.g., solar-plus-storage and hydro-wind hybrids) can build operational experience.

This study primarily relies on nationally aggregated statistics, specifically the annual average emission factors, reported installed capacities of power generation technologies, and average capacity factors derived from national energy reports. However, the quantification of avoided emissions would be more robust if complemented by hourly power system dispatch modeling using marginal emission factors, which capture temporal substitution effects between generation technologies. Future studies should also present uncertainty ranges reflecting variability in emission factor selection, capacity factor assumptions, and renewable energy curtailment rates, and should expand socioeconomic assessments to include Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) trajectories, employment multipliers, and distributional (equity) impacts (Brinkmann et al., 2018).

The development of green energy in Central Asia is both an environmental imperative and a strategic driver of sustainable economic growth, energy security, and social development. The region’s solar energy, wind energy, hydropower, as well as biomass and bioenergy, if effectively utilized, can significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions, improve air quality, expand rural electrification, and create new employment opportunities. Progress is evident in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, where utility-scale solar and wind power projects are expanding, while Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan continue to rely heavily on hydropower.

However, persistent challenges—outdated infrastructure, fragmented regulatory frameworks, limited investment, and shortages of technical expertise—reduce the pace of the transition from fossil fuel to renewable energy. Therefore, Central Asian countries should strengthen institutional and regulatory frameworks to ensure transparent, stable, and investor-friendly conditions. Enhancing regional cooperation can foster policy harmonization, cross-border electricity trade, and progress toward a unified green energy market. It is essential to mobilize finance from international development banks, climate funds, and private capital, alongside upgrading infrastructure with smart grids and storage technologies to better integrate variable renewable energy.

Capacity-building initiatives in education, vocational training, and research are crucial for developing the human capital necessary to support technological progress. Innovation in bioenergy, geothermal resources, and hybrid systems should be fostered to diversify renewable energy structure. Priority should be given to projects that deliver clear environmental and social benefits, such as the improvement of air quality, biodiversity conservation, rural development, and the increase of local quality of life. In summary, accelerating renewable energy utilization in Central Asia will help countries meet national climate targets and international commitments, while fostering a more resilient, sustainable, and prosperous future for Central Asia.

Kobiljon Khushvakht KHUSHVAKHTZODA: formal analysis, methodology, writing - original draft, and writing - review & editing; Ilkhom Burkhonovich MAKHSUMOV: supervision, validation, and writing - review & editing; Muzaffar Boynazarovich KHOLNAZAROV: data curation, investigation, resources, and visualization; and Irina Mikhailovna KIRPICHNIKOVA: conceptualization, resources, supervision, and writing - review & editing. All authors approved the manuscript.

Kobiljon Khushvakht KHUSHVAKHTZODA is an Editorial Board member of Regional Sustainability and a Guest Editor-in-Chief of the Special Issue “Green Sustainability in Tajikistan: Bridging Science, Policy, and Community Action” of Regional Sustainability, and was not involved in the editorial review or the decision to publish this article. All authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

The authors would like to express their sincere gratitude to the National Academy of Sciences of Tajikistan for its support. We are also indebted to our colleagues at the Tajik Power Engineering Institute and South Ural State University for their insightful discussions and collaboration on this manuscript.