Projection of glacier area and volume in the Sawir Mountains modeled by the OGGM

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  • 1.Tianshan Glaciological Station,State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science,Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,China
    2.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China
    3.College of Geography and Environment Science,Northwest Normal University,Lanzhou 730070,China
    4.College of Sciences,Shihezi University,Shihezi 832003,Xinjiang,China

Online published: 2024-06-24

Abstract

Based on the Global Open Glacier Model (OGGM) in conjunction with the Sixth Climate Model Comparison Program (CMIP6), three climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) simulated by five climate models (BCC-CSM2-MR, CESM2, CESM2-WACCM, FGOALS-f3-L, NorESM2-MM), the changes in the area and reserves of Sawir Mountains glaciers during 2020—2100 were systematically analyzed. The results show that under the three climate scenarios, the area and volume of glaciers in Sawir Mountains show a shrinking trend, and the glacier area and volume loss under the SSP5-8.5 high forcing scenario is the largest, and the corresponding changes in area and volume are -0.154 km2·a-1 and -5.11×106 m3·a-1, followed by the SSP2-4.5 medium forcing scenario, the corresponding area and volume changes are -0.150 km2·a-1 and -5.05×106 m3·a-1, the SSP1-2.6 low forcing scenario has the smallest area and volume loss, and the area and volume change is -0.139 km2·a-1 and -4.93×106 m3·a-1. The changes in glacier area and volume in the Sawir Mountains in China are greater than those in Kazakhstan. The changes in glacier area basically conform to the process from relatively stable to rapid changes, and finally slow down, but the changes in volume are relatively flat. Between 2020 and 2050, glacier thinning will dominate in the Sawir Mountains; between 2050 and 2100, glacier retreat will dominate in the area of the region. By 2060, 47.8% of the glaciers on Sawir Mountains will have retreated, and this proportion will rise to 78.2% by 2080.

Cite this article

Weibo ZHAO, Zhongqin LI, Jianxin MU, Hongliang LI, Shujing YANG, Chunhai XU . Projection of glacier area and volume in the Sawir Mountains modeled by the OGGM[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 2023 , 45(2) : 497 -508 . DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0240.2023.0038

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