The active layer in the permafrost region plays a critical role in surface water and groundwater exchange. Soil water content within the active layer is essential for the hydrological cycle in the permafrost region and has a significant impact on the ecological environment in this cold region. Understanding the dynamic characteristics of soil moisture in the active layer is crucial in the context of climate change. This paper employs the Extreme Learning Machine （ELM） model to analyze the soil moisture within the permafrost regions at various heights in the hinterland of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Results indicate that the ELM model， with two input variables， has higher simulation accuracy than the BP neural network model. The Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency （NSE） values of soil water content during the first day after the ELM model simulation range between 0.69 and 0.87. The simulated NSE value at the depth of 20 cm below the slope is the maximum （0.87）， and simulation accuracy improves with the increase of delay time. The NSE values for the third and seventh days after the simulation are 0.76~0.92 and 0.75~0.93， respectively. The simulation effect of water content at different depths under the slope is better than that on the slope. Subsequently， by establishing different climate change scenarios， the study explores the dynamic change law and response characteristics of soil moisture in the background of climate change. Results indicate that the soil water content at different depths increases during the initial freezing stage and the initial thawing stage due to temperature rise. However， no notable change occurs during the complete freezing period and the complete thawing period. Temperature increase affects the soil water content in the early freezing and early melting stages， with deeper layers experiencing more significant changes than shallower ones. Moreover， under the scenario of precipitation increase， the greater the precipitation increase， the more apparent the trend of soil water content， but the overall change range is small. The increase in soil water content at each depth on the slope mainly occurs in the early melting stage and the complete melting stage， whereas that at the lower slope mainly happens in the early melting stage. Compared with deep soil， shallow soil responds more strongly to precipitation increase.