In recent decades， climate change caused glacier melting and hydrological cycle acceleration has result in expansion of many lakes in the world， which may trigger the reorganization of endorheic and exorheic lake and river systems， and even lead to geological hazards such as lake outburst and sudden floods. Under the background of global warming， the retreat of glaciers， the melting of permafrost， the increase of river flow， and the expansion of lakes have become the hot issues of scientific research on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The significant changes on the plateau water system have given rise to the risk of overflow of endorheic lakes and reconstruction of hydraulic connection with outflow river systems. In this paper， in order to explore the potential risk regions for the reconstruction of hydraulic connection between the endorheic lake basin and the drainage system in the outflow region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau， the JRC Yearly Water Classification History v1.3， ETOPO1 DEM data， Landsat 8 satellite remote sensing data （2019—2020）， China’s regional surface meteorological element driven dataset （1979—2018）， and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau monthly average surface evapotranspiration dataset （2001—2018） are used as the data sources， the runoff river network in the study area is extracted by using ArcGIS hydrological analysis tool， and 26 endorheic lake basins with potential hydraulic connection with the exorheic basins of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are obtained. The Pettitt’ test， M-K trend analysis， and Pearson correlation analysis are used to analyze the hydrological and meteorological parameters change rules on the 26 endorheic lake basins. The analysis results showed that the abrupt change years for most of lakes are between 2000 and 2003， and lake water area in 17 lake basins is in an increasing trend from 1984 to 2018. Among them， the changes of water area of Yanhu Lake， Pangong Tso Lake， Zecuo Lake， and Quemocuo Lake are significantly related to the changes of meteorological parameter data （R2 larger than 0.5）. Then the correlation model between the water area and meteorological factors of the 4 lakes is constructed， and the changes of the lake water area with meteorological data in recent 30 years are analyzed. On this basis， the impact of regional precipitation， temperature and other parameters changes on the lake water area in the next 30 years （before 2050）， and the reorganization possibility of the hydraulic connection between the 4 related lake basins with the exorheic river systems are analyzed. The following conclusions are obtained： （1） the surface water area of the 17 endorheic lakes experiences significant increasing trends from 1984 to 2018； （2） the correlation between the change of lake surface area and meteorological factors is different in difference places on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The change of the water surface area of the Yanhu Lake and Quemocuo Lake in Qinghai Province in the east of the plateau is mainly related to temperature and precipitation， while the change of the water surface area of Pangong Tso and Zecuo lakes in the higher altitude of the Tibet Autonomous Region in the west of the plateau is mainly related to the change of temperature； （3） the future prediction results of the water surface areas of the Yanhu， Quemocuo， Pangong Tso， and Zecuo lakes show that， except the Yanhu Lake which had rebuilt its hydraulic connection with a tributary of the Yangtze River in 2019， Pangong Tso， Zecuo， and Quemocuo lakes haven’t risk of overflow before 2050. This study is helpful to understand the change process of lake and river water systems under the influence of global climate change， it is also helpful to scientifically prevent and respond to potential lake outburst disaster risks.